Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño Event
Abstract
Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and fooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p<0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p<0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variablemore »
- Authors:
-
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD (United States); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Sciences Lab.
- Dept. of Defense, Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch, Silver Spring, MD (United States)
- US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural Research Service for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Sciences Lab.; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD (United States)
- United States Air Force, Asheville, NC (United States). 14th Weather Squadron. DoD Climate Services
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Sciences Lab.
- EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Gainesville, FL (United States). Agricultural Research Service for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1624447
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Science & Technology - Other Topics
Citation Formats
Anyamba, Assaf, Chretien, Jean-Paul, Britch, Seth C., Soebiyanto, Radina P., Small, Jennifer L., Jepsen, Rikke, Forshey, Brett M., Sanchez, Jose L., Smith, Ryan D., Harris, Ryan, Tucker, Compton J., Karesh, William B., and Linthicum, Kenneth J. Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño Event. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z.
Anyamba, Assaf, Chretien, Jean-Paul, Britch, Seth C., Soebiyanto, Radina P., Small, Jennifer L., Jepsen, Rikke, Forshey, Brett M., Sanchez, Jose L., Smith, Ryan D., Harris, Ryan, Tucker, Compton J., Karesh, William B., & Linthicum, Kenneth J. Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño Event. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z
Anyamba, Assaf, Chretien, Jean-Paul, Britch, Seth C., Soebiyanto, Radina P., Small, Jennifer L., Jepsen, Rikke, Forshey, Brett M., Sanchez, Jose L., Smith, Ryan D., Harris, Ryan, Tucker, Compton J., Karesh, William B., and Linthicum, Kenneth J. Wed .
"Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño Event". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1624447.
@article{osti_1624447,
title = {Global Disease Outbreaks Associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño Event},
author = {Anyamba, Assaf and Chretien, Jean-Paul and Britch, Seth C. and Soebiyanto, Radina P. and Small, Jennifer L. and Jepsen, Rikke and Forshey, Brett M. and Sanchez, Jose L. and Smith, Ryan D. and Harris, Ryan and Tucker, Compton J. and Karesh, William B. and Linthicum, Kenneth J.},
abstractNote = {Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and fooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p<0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p<0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-38034-z},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Wed Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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