Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model
Abstract
A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. Our application to 18 streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. The spatial network structure produced a substantial reduction in themore »
- Authors:
-
- City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (United States)
- Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
- Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US. Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT (United States)
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1612849
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1560770
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0018124; 1401698; 1404188; 1360446
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 55; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Water Resources; spatial Markov model; paleo‐reconstructions; streamflow reconstructions; Bayesian statistics; water management; stochastic hydrology
Citation Formats
Ravindranath, Arun, Devineni, Naresh, Lall, Upmanu, Cook, Edward R., Pederson, Greg, Martin, Justin, and Woodhouse, Connie. Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019wr024901.
Ravindranath, Arun, Devineni, Naresh, Lall, Upmanu, Cook, Edward R., Pederson, Greg, Martin, Justin, & Woodhouse, Connie. Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr024901
Ravindranath, Arun, Devineni, Naresh, Lall, Upmanu, Cook, Edward R., Pederson, Greg, Martin, Justin, and Woodhouse, Connie. Thu .
"Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr024901. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1612849.
@article{osti_1612849,
title = {Streamflow Reconstruction in the Upper Missouri River Basin Using a Novel Bayesian Network Model},
author = {Ravindranath, Arun and Devineni, Naresh and Lall, Upmanu and Cook, Edward R. and Pederson, Greg and Martin, Justin and Woodhouse, Connie},
abstractNote = {A Bayesian model that uses the spatial dependence induced by the river network topology, and the leading principal components of regional tree ring chronologies for paleo-streamflow reconstruction is presented. In any river basin, a convergent, dendritic network of tributaries come together to form the main stem of a river. Consequently, it is natural to think of a spatial Markov process that recognizes this topological structure to develop a spatially consistent basin-scale streamflow reconstruction model that uses the information in streamflow and tree ring chronology data to inform the reconstructed flows, while maintaining the space-time correlation structure of flows that is critical for water resource assessments and management. Given historical data from multiple streamflow gauges along a river, their tributaries in a watershed, and regional tree ring chronologies, the model is fit and used to simultaneously reconstruct the full network of paleo-streamflow at all gauges in the basin progressing upstream to downstream along the river. Our application to 18 streamflow gauges in the Upper Missouri River Basin shows that the mean adjusted R2 for the basin is approximately 0.5 with good overall cross-validated skill as measured by five different skill metrics. The spatial network structure produced a substantial reduction in the uncertainty associated with paleo-streamflow as one proceeds downstream in the network aggregating information from upstream gauges and tree ring chronologies. Uncertainty was reduced by more than 50% at six gauges, between 6% and 50% at one gauge, and by less than 5% at the remaining 11 gauges when compared with the traditional principal component regression reconstruction model.},
doi = {10.1029/2019wr024901},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
number = 9,
volume = 55,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Aug 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Thu Aug 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Works referenced in this record:
A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories
journal, December 1969
- Epstein, Edward S.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Can a paleodrought record be used to reconstruct streamflow?: A case study for the Missouri River Basin: MISSOURI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION FROM LBDA
journal, July 2016
- Ho, Michelle; Lall, Upmanu; Cook, Edward R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 7
A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction of Delaware River Basin Streamflow Using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression
journal, June 2013
- Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Pederson, Neil
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 12
The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate
journal, September 2010
- Li, Bo; Nychka, Douglas W.; Ammann, Caspar M.
- Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 105, Issue 491
On the “Ranked Probability Score”
journal, December 1969
- Murphy, Allan H.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Potomac River Streamflow Since 1730 as Reconstructed by Tree Rings
journal, October 1983
- Cook, Edward R.; Jacoby, Gordon C.
- Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 22, Issue 10
Surface Climate and Streamflow Variability in the Western United States and Their Relationship to Large-Scale Circulation Indices
journal, September 1991
- Redmond, Kelly T.; Koch, Roy W.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 27, Issue 9
Reconstructed streamflow using SST and tree-ring chronologies over the southeastern United States
journal, August 2015
- Patskoski, Jason; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Wang, Hui
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 527
Updated streamflow reconstructions for the Upper Colorado River Basin: UPDATED COLORADO RIVER RECONSTRUCTIONS
journal, May 2006
- Woodhouse, Connie A.; Gray, Stephen T.; Meko, David M.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, Issue 5
Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest region of North America
journal, July 2000
- Hamlet, Alan F.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
- Journal of Hydroinformatics, Vol. 2, Issue 3
A Short History of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Subjective Recollections from Incomplete Data
journal, February 2011
- Robert, Christian; Casella, George
- Statistical Science, Vol. 26, Issue 1
Five centuries of Upper Indus River flow from tree rings
journal, April 2013
- Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Ahmed, Moinuddin
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 486
A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River streamflow (950-2001): POTOMAC RIVER STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION
journal, May 2011
- Maxwell, R. Stockton; Hessl, Amy E.; Cook, Edward R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, Issue 5
Multi-Century Tree-Ring Reconstructions of Colorado Streamflow for Water Resource Planning
journal, August 2006
- Woodhouse, Connie A.; Lukas, Jeffrey J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 78, Issue 2-4
Asynchronous Droughts in California Streamflow as Reconstructed from Tree Rings
journal, May 1993
- Earle, Christopher J.
- Quaternary Research, Vol. 39, Issue 3
Reconstructing Summer Temperatures in Northern Fennoscandinavia Back to A.D. 1700 Using Tree-Ring Data from Scots Pine
journal, November 1988
- Briffa, K. R.; Jones, P. D.; Pilcher, J. R.
- Arctic and Alpine Research, Vol. 20, Issue 4
An Annual Streamflow Reconstruction of the Red River, Kentucky Using a White Pine (Pinus Strobus) Chronology
journal, January 2015
- Day, C. Andrew; Sandifer, Jeremy
- Journal of Geography and Earth Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Reconstructed Streamflows for the Headwaters of the Wind River, Wyoming, United States
journal, February 2009
- Watson, Thomas A.; Anthony Barnett, F.; Gray, Stephen T.
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 45, Issue 1
Five Hundred Years of Hydrological Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin
journal, June 2007
- Timilsena, Janak; Piechota, Thomas C.; Hidalgo, Hugo
- Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 43, Issue 3
Hydroclimate drivers and atmospheric teleconnections of long duration floods: An application to large reservoirs in the Missouri River Basin
journal, February 2017
- Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh; Lu, Mengqian
- Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 100
Tree Ring–Based Reconstruction of October to November Runoffs in the Jiaolai River since 1826
journal, January 2014
- Ma, Long; Liu, TingXi; Wu, Quan
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Paleoreconstruction of cool season precipitation and warm season streamflow in the Pacific Northwest with applications to climate change assessments: RECONSTRUCT SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AND STREAMFLOW
journal, January 2012
- Lutz, Eric R.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Littell, Jeremy S.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 1
A watershed modeling approach to streamflow reconstruction from tree-ring records
journal, April 2008
- Saito, Laurel; Biondi, Franco; Salas, Jose D.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 3, Issue 2
A Bayesian hierarchical nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model for multisite streamflow reconstructions: A MODEL FOR MULTISITE STREAMFLOW RECONSTRUCTION
journal, October 2016
- Bracken, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Woodhouse, C.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 10
Hydroclimatology of the Missouri River Basin
journal, January 2018
- Wise, Erika K.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory J.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin
journal, January 2007
- Meko, David M.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Baisan, Christopher A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 10
Columbia River flow and Drought Since 1750
journal, December 2004
- Gedalof, Ze'ev; Peterson, David L.; Mantua, Nathan J.
- Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 40, Issue 6
ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States*
journal, September 1999
- Cayan, Daniel R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Riddle, Laurence G.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 12, Issue 9
Reconstructing Streamflow Time Series in Central Arizona Using Monthly Precipitation and Tree Ring Records
journal, March 1994
- Young, Kenneth C.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 7, Issue 3
A Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Streamflow for the Colorado Front Range
journal, June 2001
- Woodhouse, Connie A.
- Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, Issue 3
A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand
journal, March 2018
- Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 3
Sacramento River flow Reconstructed to a.d. 869 from tree Rings1
journal, August 2001
- Meko, David M.; Therrell, Matthew D.; Baisan, Christopher H.
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, Issue 4
A nonparametric approach for paleohydrologic reconstruction of annual streamflow ensembles: NPP ANNUAL STREAMFLOW ENSEMBLES
journal, June 2009
- Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Harding, Benjamin L.; Rajagopalan, Balaji
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 6
Upper Green River Basin (United States) Streamflow Reconstructions
journal, July 2010
- Barnett, F. Anthony; Gray, Stephen T.; Tootle, Glenn A.
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 15, Issue 7
A Note on the Ranked Probability Score
journal, February 1971
- Murphy, Allan H.
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Colorado River Basin Hydroclimatic Variability
journal, June 2012
- Nowak, Kenneth; Hoerling, Martin; Rajagopalan, Balaji
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 12
ENSO and PDO Effects on Hydroclimatic Variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin
journal, February 2003
- Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Dracup, John A.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Upper gila rwer Discharge
journal, August 1995
- Meko, David; Graybill, Donald A.
- Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 31, Issue 4
A linear dynamical systems approach to streamflow reconstruction reveals history of regime shifts in northern Thailand
text, January 2017
- Nguyen, Hung; Galelli, Stefano
- EarthArXiv
A multispecies tree ring reconstruction of Potomac River streamflow (950–2001)
text, January 2011
- Maxwell, R. Stockton; Hessl, Amy E.; Cook, Edward R.
- Columbia University
A watershed modeling approach to streamflow reconstruction from tree-ring records
journal, April 2008
- Saito, Laurel; Biondi, Franco; Salas, Jose D.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Six Centuries of Upper Indus Basin Streamflow Variability and Its Climatic Drivers
text, January 2018
- Rao, Mukund Palat; Cook, Edward R.; Cook, Benjamin I.
- Columbia University
Five centuries of Upper Indus River flow from tree rings
text, January 2013
- Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Ahmed, Moinuddin
- Columbia University
A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction of Delaware River Basin Streamflow Using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression
text, January 2013
- Devineni, Naresh; Lall, Upmanu; Pederson, Neil
- Columbia University
Figures / Tables found in this record: