Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence
Abstract
Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Furthermore we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950–1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900–1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.
- Authors:
-
- NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1593565
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-761046
Journal ID: ISSN 0028-0836; 949758
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; SC0014423; AGS-1243204; AGS-1602581; OISE-1743738; AGS-1703029
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature (London)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Nature (London); Journal Volume: 569; Journal Issue: 7754; Journal ID: ISSN 0028-0836
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Marvel, Kate, Cook, Benjamin I., Bonfils, Céline J. W., Durack, Paul J., Smerdon, Jason E., and Williams, A. Park. Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8.
Marvel, Kate, Cook, Benjamin I., Bonfils, Céline J. W., Durack, Paul J., Smerdon, Jason E., & Williams, A. Park. Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8
Marvel, Kate, Cook, Benjamin I., Bonfils, Céline J. W., Durack, Paul J., Smerdon, Jason E., and Williams, A. Park. Wed .
"Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1593565.
@article{osti_1593565,
title = {Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence},
author = {Marvel, Kate and Cook, Benjamin I. and Bonfils, Céline J. W. and Durack, Paul J. and Smerdon, Jason E. and Williams, A. Park},
abstractNote = {Although anthropogenic climate change is expected to have caused large shifts in temperature and rainfall, the detection of human influence on global drought has been complicated by large internal variability and the brevity of observational records. Furthermore we address these challenges using reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index obtained with data from tree rings that span the past millennium. We show that three distinct periods are identifiable in climate models, observations and reconstructions during the twentieth century. In recent decades (1981 to present), the signal of greenhouse gas forcing is present but not yet detectable at high confidence. Observations and reconstructions differ significantly from an expected pattern of greenhouse gas forcing around mid-century (1950–1975), coinciding with a global increase in aerosol forcing. In the first half of the century (1900–1949), however, a signal of greenhouse-gas-forced change is robustly detectable. Multiple observational datasets and reconstructions using data from tree rings confirm that human activities were probably affecting the worldwide risk of droughts as early as the beginning of the twentieth century.},
doi = {10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8},
journal = {Nature (London)},
number = 7754,
volume = 569,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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