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Title: Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability

Abstract

A growing literature is reporting on how the terrestrial carbon cycle is experiencing year-to-year variability because of climate anomalies and trends caused by global change. As CO2concentration records in the atmosphere exceed 50 years and as satellite records reach over 30 years in length, we are becoming better able to address carbon cycle variability and trends. Here we review how variable the carbon cycle is, how large the trends in its gross and net fluxes are, and how well the signal can be separated from noise. We explore mechanisms that explain year-to-year variability and trends by deconstructing the global carbon budget. The CO2concentration record is detecting a significant increase in the seasonal amplitude between 1958 and now. Inferential methods provide a variety of explanations for this result, but a conclusive attribution remains elusive. Scientists have reported that this trend is a consequence of the greening of the biosphere, stronger northern latitude photosynthesis, more photosynthesis by semi-arid ecosystems, agriculture and the green revolution, tropical temperature anomalies, or increased winter respiration. At the global scale, variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle can be due to changes in constituent fluxes, gross primary productivity, plant respiration and heterotrophic (microbial) respiration, and losses due tomore » fire, land use change, soil erosion, or harvesting. It remains controversial whether or not there is a significant trend in global primary productivity (due to rising CO2, temperature, nitrogen deposition, changing land use, and preponderance of wet and dry regions). The degree to which year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation anomalies affect global primary productivity also remains uncertain. For perspective, interannual variability in global gross primary productivity is relatively small (on the order of 2 Pg-C y-1) with respect to a large and uncertain background (123 +/- 4 Pg-C y-1), and detected trends in global primary productivity are even smaller (33 Tg-C y-2). Yet residual carbon balance methods infer that the terrestrial biosphere is experiencing a significant and growing carbon sink. Possible explanations for this large and growing net land sink include roles of land use change and greening of the land, regional enhancement of photosynthesis, and down regulation of plant and soil respiration with warming temperatures. Longer time series of variables needed to provide top-down and bottom-up assessments of the carbon cycle are needed to resolve these pressing and unresolved issues regarding how, why, and at what rates gross and net carbon fluxes are changing.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Seoul National Univ., Seoul (Korea)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1580013
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
F1000Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2046-1402
Publisher:
F1000Research
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Baldocchi, Dennis, Ryu, Youngryel, and Keenan, Trevor. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.12688/f1000research.8962.1.
Baldocchi, Dennis, Ryu, Youngryel, & Keenan, Trevor. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability. United States. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.8962.1
Baldocchi, Dennis, Ryu, Youngryel, and Keenan, Trevor. Mon . "Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability". United States. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.8962.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1580013.
@article{osti_1580013,
title = {Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability},
author = {Baldocchi, Dennis and Ryu, Youngryel and Keenan, Trevor},
abstractNote = {A growing literature is reporting on how the terrestrial carbon cycle is experiencing year-to-year variability because of climate anomalies and trends caused by global change. As CO2concentration records in the atmosphere exceed 50 years and as satellite records reach over 30 years in length, we are becoming better able to address carbon cycle variability and trends. Here we review how variable the carbon cycle is, how large the trends in its gross and net fluxes are, and how well the signal can be separated from noise. We explore mechanisms that explain year-to-year variability and trends by deconstructing the global carbon budget. The CO2concentration record is detecting a significant increase in the seasonal amplitude between 1958 and now. Inferential methods provide a variety of explanations for this result, but a conclusive attribution remains elusive. Scientists have reported that this trend is a consequence of the greening of the biosphere, stronger northern latitude photosynthesis, more photosynthesis by semi-arid ecosystems, agriculture and the green revolution, tropical temperature anomalies, or increased winter respiration. At the global scale, variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle can be due to changes in constituent fluxes, gross primary productivity, plant respiration and heterotrophic (microbial) respiration, and losses due to fire, land use change, soil erosion, or harvesting. It remains controversial whether or not there is a significant trend in global primary productivity (due to rising CO2, temperature, nitrogen deposition, changing land use, and preponderance of wet and dry regions). The degree to which year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation anomalies affect global primary productivity also remains uncertain. For perspective, interannual variability in global gross primary productivity is relatively small (on the order of 2 Pg-C y-1) with respect to a large and uncertain background (123 +/- 4 Pg-C y-1), and detected trends in global primary productivity are even smaller (33 Tg-C y-2). Yet residual carbon balance methods infer that the terrestrial biosphere is experiencing a significant and growing carbon sink. Possible explanations for this large and growing net land sink include roles of land use change and greening of the land, regional enhancement of photosynthesis, and down regulation of plant and soil respiration with warming temperatures. Longer time series of variables needed to provide top-down and bottom-up assessments of the carbon cycle are needed to resolve these pressing and unresolved issues regarding how, why, and at what rates gross and net carbon fluxes are changing.},
doi = {10.12688/f1000research.8962.1},
journal = {F1000Research},
number = ,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Sep 26 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Mon Sep 26 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production
journal, December 2016

  • Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis
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Maximum carbon uptake rate dominates the interannual variability of global net ecosystem exchange
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