Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California
Abstract
Abstract Foreshocks have been documented as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretical models of earthquake nucleation, which both suggest that foreshock activity should be nearly ubiquitous. Here we use a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution earthquake catalog to study foreshock sequences of magnitude M4 and greater mainshocks in southern California from 2008–2017. This highly complete catalog provides a new opportunity to examine smaller magnitude precursory seismicity. Seventy‐two percent of mainshocks within this catalog are preceded by foreshock activity that is significantly elevated compared to the local background seismicity rate. Foreshock sequences vary in duration from several days to weeks, with a median of 16.6 days. The results suggest that foreshock occurrence in nature is more prevalent than previously thought and that our understanding of earthquake nucleation may improve in tandem with advances in our ability to detect small earthquakes.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2]
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565870
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1548018
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-23605
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; TRN: US2000922
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 46; Journal Issue: 15; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; foreshocks; earthquake catalogs; statistical seismology; earthquake triggering; earthquake nucleation
Citation Formats
Trugman, Daniel T., and Ross, Zachary E. Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL083725.
Trugman, Daniel T., & Ross, Zachary E. Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725
Trugman, Daniel T., and Ross, Zachary E. Tue .
"Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565870.
@article{osti_1565870,
title = {Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California},
author = {Trugman, Daniel T. and Ross, Zachary E.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Foreshocks have been documented as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretical models of earthquake nucleation, which both suggest that foreshock activity should be nearly ubiquitous. Here we use a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution earthquake catalog to study foreshock sequences of magnitude M4 and greater mainshocks in southern California from 2008–2017. This highly complete catalog provides a new opportunity to examine smaller magnitude precursory seismicity. Seventy‐two percent of mainshocks within this catalog are preceded by foreshock activity that is significantly elevated compared to the local background seismicity rate. Foreshock sequences vary in duration from several days to weeks, with a median of 16.6 days. The results suggest that foreshock occurrence in nature is more prevalent than previously thought and that our understanding of earthquake nucleation may improve in tandem with advances in our ability to detect small earthquakes.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083725},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 15,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jul 30 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Tue Jul 30 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: Foreshock sequences of 46 M4 and M5 earthquakes in southern California. The study region outlined in red – [32.68°, 36.20°] latitude and [-118.80°, -115.40°] longitude – was selected to ensure a sufficiently low magnitude of completion for detection (Figure S1). Each event is color-coded by the p-value measurementmore »
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Works referencing / citing this record:
On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California
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