Title: Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

Abstract

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts -- and-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of ourmore » results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.« less

Authors:

Hirsch, Annette L.  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-5811-2465"

Guillod, Benoit P.  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1807-6997"

Seneviratne, Sonia I.  ^[1];

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Beyerle, Urs  ^[1];

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Boysen, Lena R.  ^[2];

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Brovkin, Victor  ^[2];

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Davin, Edouard L.  ^[1];

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Doelman, Jonathan C. ^[3]; Kim, Hyungjun  ^[4];

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Mitchell, Daniel M.  ^[5];

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Nitta, Tomoko ^[4]; Shiogama, Hideo  ^[6];

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Sparrow, Sarah  ^[7];

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Stehfest, Elke  ^[3];

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van Vuuren, Detlef P.  ^[8];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-0398-2831"

Wilson, Simon ^[9]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
2. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
3. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (The Netherlands)
4. The Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)
5. Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)
6. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
7. Univ. of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom)
8. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (The Netherlands); Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
9. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)

Publication Date:

Tue Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2018

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:

1544313

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Earth's Future

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; HAPPI‐Land; land‐use change; land‐based mitigation; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; Earth System Modeling; Integrated Assessment Modeling‐