Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C
Abstract
A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models.
- Authors:
-
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
- Beijing Normal Univ., Beijing (China)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1544104
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geology
Citation Formats
Chen, Yi, Zhang, Zhao, and Tao, Fulu. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-543-2018.
Chen, Yi, Zhang, Zhao, & Tao, Fulu. Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018
Chen, Yi, Zhang, Zhao, and Tao, Fulu. Fri .
"Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-543-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544104.
@article{osti_1544104,
title = {Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C},
author = {Chen, Yi and Zhang, Zhao and Tao, Fulu},
abstractNote = {A new temperature goal of “holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-543-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri May 18 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri May 18 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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