Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model
Abstract
This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order tomore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom)
- Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1537014
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0016538
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 30; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Citation Formats
Sévellec, Florian, and Fedorov, Alexey V. Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0323.1.
Sévellec, Florian, & Fedorov, Alexey V. Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0323.1
Sévellec, Florian, and Fedorov, Alexey V. Thu .
"Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0323.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1537014.
@article{osti_1537014,
title = {Predictability and Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean State Evaluated from a Realistic Ocean Model},
author = {Sévellec, Florian and Fedorov, Alexey V.},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the excitation of decadal variability and predictability of the ocean climate state in the North Atlantic. Specifically, initial linear optimal perturbations (LOPs) in temperature and salinity that vary with depth, longitude, and latitude are computed, and the maximum impact on the ocean of these perturbations is evaluated in a realistic ocean general circulation model. The computations of the LOPs involve a maximization procedure based on Lagrange multipliers in a nonautonomous context. To assess the impact of these perturbations four different measures of the North Atlantic Ocean state are used: meridional volume and heat transports (MVT and MHT) and spatially averaged sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content (OHC). It is shown that these metrics are dramatically different with regard to predictability. Whereas OHC and SST can be efficiently modified only by basin-scale anomalies, MVT and MHT are also strongly affected by smaller-scale perturbations. This suggests that instantaneous or even annual-mean values of MVT and MHT are less predictable than SST and OHC. Only when averaged over several decades do the former two metrics have predictability comparable to the latter two, which highlights the need for long-term observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in order to accumulate climatically relevant data. This study also suggests that initial errors in ocean temperature of a few millikelvins, encompassing both the upper and deep ocean, can lead to ~0.1-K errors in the predictions of North Atlantic sea surface temperature on interannual time scales. This transient error growth peaks for SST and OHC after about 6 and 10 years, respectively, implying a potential predictability barrier.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-16-0323.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 2,
volume = 30,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 22 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Thu Dec 22 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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