A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme
Abstract
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[2];
[4]
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
- ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Inst. für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1532849
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geology
Citation Formats
Knutti, Reto, Sedláček, Jan, Sanderson, Benjamin M., Lorenz, Ruth, Fischer, Erich M., and Eyring, Veronika. A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2016gl072012.
Knutti, Reto, Sedláček, Jan, Sanderson, Benjamin M., Lorenz, Ruth, Fischer, Erich M., & Eyring, Veronika. A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072012
Knutti, Reto, Sedláček, Jan, Sanderson, Benjamin M., Lorenz, Ruth, Fischer, Erich M., and Eyring, Veronika. Wed .
"A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072012. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1532849.
@article{osti_1532849,
title = {A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme},
author = {Knutti, Reto and Sedláček, Jan and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Lorenz, Ruth and Fischer, Erich M. and Eyring, Veronika},
abstractNote = {Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.},
doi = {10.1002/2016gl072012},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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