Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)
Abstract
Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.
- Authors:
-
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1530747
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-143284
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-9603
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION
Citation Formats
Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., and Kraucunas, Ian P. Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0). United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019.
Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., & Kraucunas, Ian P. Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0). United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019
Chen, Min, Vernon, Christopher R., Huang, Maoyi, Calvin, Katherine V., and Kraucunas, Ian P. Fri .
"Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530747.
@article{osti_1530747,
title = {Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM using Demeter (v1.0.0)},
author = {Chen, Min and Vernon, Christopher R. and Huang, Maoyi and Calvin, Katherine V. and Kraucunas, Ian P.},
abstractNote = {Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human–Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model's performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned,especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios,suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in Demeter-downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users and ultimately contributes to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-12-1753-2019},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development (Online)},
number = 5,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri May 03 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Fri May 03 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century
journal, June 2010
- Liu, Jiyuan; Zhang, Zengxiang; Xu, Xinliang
- Journal of Geographical Sciences, Vol. 20, Issue 4
The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation
journal, September 2006
- Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, Jae; Lurz, Josh
- The Energy Journal, Vol. SI2006, Issue 01
The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use
journal, January 2012
- Souty, F.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 5, Issue 5
Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona
journal, August 2012
- Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.; Mahalov, A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 1
A cluster-based method to map urban area from DMSP/OLS nightlights
journal, May 2014
- Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J.; Elvidge, Christopher D.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 147
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6:
rationale and experimental design
journal, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data
journal, January 2000
- Loveland, T. R.; Reed, B. C.; Brown, J. F.
- International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 21, Issue 6-7
Body-size shifts in aquatic and terrestrial urban communities
journal, May 2018
- Merckx, Thomas; Souffreau, Caroline; Kaiser, Aurélien
- Nature, Vol. 558, Issue 7708
Downscaling land-use data to provide global 30″ estimates of five land-use classes
journal, March 2016
- Hoskins, Andrew J.; Bush, Alex; Gilmore, James
- Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 6, Issue 9
Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale
journal, November 2014
- Meiyappan, Prasanth; Dalton, Michael; O’Neill, Brian C.
- Ecological Modelling, Vol. 291
Downscaling scenarios of future land use and land cover changes using a participatory approach: an application to mountain risk assessment in the Pyrenees (France)
journal, June 2017
- Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Vacquié, Laure
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 17, Issue 8
Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach
journal, January 2000
- Hansen, M. C.; Defries, R. S.; Townshend, J. R. G.
- International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 21, Issue 6-7
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments
journal, January 2017
- Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 2
The regional nature of global challenges: a need and strategy for integrated regional modeling
journal, January 2013
- Hibbard, Kathy A.; Janetos, Anthony C.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 118, Issue 3-4
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
journal, August 2011
- Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The Impact of Land Cover Change on Surface Energy and Water Balance in Mato Grosso, Brazil
journal, October 2006
- Pongratz, Julia; Bounoua, Lahouari; DeFries, Ruth S.
- Earth Interactions, Vol. 10, Issue 19
Historical Development of the Newton–Raphson Method
journal, December 1995
- Ypma, Tjalling J.
- SIAM Review, Vol. 37, Issue 4
Urban mapping using DMSP/OLS stable night-time light: a review
journal, January 2017
- Li, Xuecao; Zhou, Yuyu
- International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 38, Issue 21
Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century
journal, September 2013
- Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Arora, V. K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States
journal, March 2018
- Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 4
An integrated assessment of climate change and the accelerated introduction of advanced energy technologies: An application of MiniCAM 1.0
journal, January 1997
- Edmonds, Jae; Wise, Marshall; Pitcher, Hugh
- Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 1, Issue 4
Monitoring vegetation phenology using MODIS
journal, March 2003
- Zhang, Xiaoyang; Friedl, Mark A.; Schaaf, Crystal B.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 84, Issue 3
Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology
journal, August 2001
- Beven, Keith; Freer, Jim
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 249, Issue 1-4
Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095
journal, May 2014
- West, Tristram O.; Le Page, Yannick; Huang, Maoyi
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6
Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey in Houston
journal, November 2018
- Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
- Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7731
Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests
journal, March 2018
- Law, Beverly E.; Hudiburg, Tara W.; Berner, Logan T.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 14
Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model
for coupling with Earth system models
journal, January 2016
- Le Page, Yannick; West, Tris O.; Link, Robert
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends
journal, September 2007
- Piao, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Ciais, P.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 39
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100
journal, May 2012
- Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Global land cover mapping from MODIS: algorithms and early results
journal, November 2002
- Friedl, M. A.; McIver, D. K.; Hodges, J. C. F.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 83, Issue 1-2
Impacts on regional climate of Amazon deforestation
journal, October 1992
- Dickinson, Robert E.; Kennedy, Patrick
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 19
The impact of anthropogenic land use and land cover change on regional climate extremes
journal, October 2017
- Findell, Kirsten L.; Berg, Alexis; Gentine, Pierre
- Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land
journal, September 1990
- Jones, P. D.; Groisman, P. Ya.; Coughlan, M.
- Nature, Vol. 347, Issue 6289
Demeter – A Land Use and Land Cover Change Disaggregation Model
journal, January 2018
- Vernon, Chris R.; Le Page, Yannick; Chen, Min
- Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 6
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments
text, January 2017
- Prestele, Reinhard; Arneth, Almut; Bondeau, Alberte
- Karlsruhe
Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Predictability
journal, November 2005
- Wikle, Christopher K.
- Technometrics, Vol. 47, Issue 4
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design
text, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Karlsruhe