The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer
Abstract
In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Div.
- National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO (United States). Center for Weather and Climate (CWC)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1523480
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012711
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z.
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., & Wahl, E. The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z
Fasullo, J. T., Tomas, R., Stevenson, S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E., and Wahl, E. Tue .
"The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523480.
@article{osti_1523480,
title = {The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer},
author = {Fasullo, J. T. and Tomas, R. and Stevenson, S. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Brady, E. and Wahl, E.},
abstractNote = {In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia’s Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Oct 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Oct 31 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
Web of Science
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