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Title: Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States

Abstract

In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure,more » and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [3];  [10];  [10]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Division of Biology and Paleo Environment. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  2. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Division of Ocean and Climate Physics. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences
  4. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). School of Geography and Development. Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
  5. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
  6. Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States). Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
  7. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
  8. Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth Sciences
  9. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
  10. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
1514957
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-26060
Journal ID: ISSN 1558-8424
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; NA10OAR4310137
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 53; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1558-8424
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; atmospheric circulation; vegetation-atmosphere interactions; drought; wildfires

Citation Formats

Williams, A. Park, Seager, Richard, Berkelhammer, Max, Macalady, Alison K., Crimmins, Michael A., Swetnam, Thomas W., Trugman, Anna T., Buenning, Nikolaus, Hryniw, Natalia, McDowell, Nate G., Noone, David, Mora, Claudia I., and Rahn, Thom. Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1.
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Williams, A. Park, Seager, Richard, Berkelhammer, Max, Macalady, Alison K., Crimmins, Michael A., Swetnam, Thomas W., Trugman, Anna T., Buenning, Nikolaus, Hryniw, Natalia, McDowell, Nate G., Noone, David, Mora, Claudia I., & Rahn, Thom. Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1
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Williams, A. Park, Seager, Richard, Berkelhammer, Max, Macalady, Alison K., Crimmins, Michael A., Swetnam, Thomas W., Trugman, Anna T., Buenning, Nikolaus, Hryniw, Natalia, McDowell, Nate G., Noone, David, Mora, Claudia I., and Rahn, Thom. Wed . "Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1514957.
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@article{osti_1514957,
title = {Causes and Implications of Extreme Atmospheric Moisture Demand during the Record-Breaking 2011 Wildfire Season in the Southwestern United States},
author = {Williams, A. Park and Seager, Richard and Berkelhammer, Max and Macalady, Alison K. and Crimmins, Michael A. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Trugman, Anna T. and Buenning, Nikolaus and Hryniw, Natalia and McDowell, Nate G. and Noone, David and Mora, Claudia I. and Rahn, Thom},
abstractNote = {In 2011, exceptionally low atmospheric moisture content combined with moderately high temperatures to produce a record-high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the southwestern United States (SW). These conditions combined with record-low cold-season precipitation to cause widespread drought and extreme wildfires. Although interannual VPD variability is generally dominated by temperature, high VPD in 2011 was also driven by a lack of atmospheric moisture. The May–July 2011 dewpoint in the SW was 4.5 standard deviations below the long-term mean. Lack of atmospheric moisture was promoted by already very dry soils and amplified by a strong ocean-to-continent sea level pressure gradient and upper-level convergence that drove dry northerly winds and subsidence upwind of and over the SW. Subsidence drove divergence of rapid and dry surface winds over the SW, suppressing southerly moisture imports and removing moisture from already dry soils. Model projections developed for the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggest that by the 2050s warming trends will cause mean warm-season VPD to be comparable to the record-high VPD observed in 2011. CMIP5 projections also suggest increased interannual variability of VPD, independent of trends in background mean levels, as a result of increased variability of dewpoint, temperature, vapor pressure, and saturation vapor pressure. Increased variability in VPD translates to increased probability of 2011-type VPD anomalies, which would be superimposed on ever-greater background VPD levels. Although temperature will continue to be the primary driver of interannual VPD variability, 2011 served as an important reminder that atmospheric moisture content can also drive impactful VPD anomalies.},
doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1},
journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
number = 12,
volume = 53,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Wed Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
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Journal Article:
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Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0053.1
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Cited by: 61 works
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Figures / Tables:

FIG. 1 FIG. 1: Surface climate anomalies in 2011 for (a) log(precipitation), (b) daily maximum temperature, (c) dewpoint, and (d) VPD. For each variable, the period of 3–6 months during August 2010–July 2011 with the strongest anomaly in the SW is shown. Maps show spatial distributions of anomalies as standard deviations frommore » the 1895–2014 mean. Time series show annual values averaged across the SW region, with red dots indicating 2011 values. In the maps, red polygons bound the SW, black contours represent drought anomalies of 2 standard deviations, and yellow areas indicate locations of 2011 fires (Williams et al. 2014).« less
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      TABLE 1 (p. 10)table
      FIG. 6 (p. 11)figure
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