21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes
Abstract
Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[3];
[3]
- Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
- Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany)
- Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany); Univ. of Potsdam, Potsdam (Germany)
- Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
- Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1511474
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0010580; SC0016440
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Anthony, Katey Walter, Schneider von Deimling, Thomas, Nitze, Ingmar, Frolking, Steve, Emond, Abraham, Daanen, Ronald, Anthony, Peter, Lindgren, Prajna, Jones, Benjamin, and Grosse, Guido. 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9.
Anthony, Katey Walter, Schneider von Deimling, Thomas, Nitze, Ingmar, Frolking, Steve, Emond, Abraham, Daanen, Ronald, Anthony, Peter, Lindgren, Prajna, Jones, Benjamin, & Grosse, Guido. 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9
Anthony, Katey Walter, Schneider von Deimling, Thomas, Nitze, Ingmar, Frolking, Steve, Emond, Abraham, Daanen, Ronald, Anthony, Peter, Lindgren, Prajna, Jones, Benjamin, and Grosse, Guido. Wed .
"21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1511474.
@article{osti_1511474,
title = {21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes},
author = {Anthony, Katey Walter and Schneider von Deimling, Thomas and Nitze, Ingmar and Frolking, Steve and Emond, Abraham and Daanen, Ronald and Anthony, Peter and Lindgren, Prajna and Jones, Benjamin and Grosse, Guido},
abstractNote = {Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Aug 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Wed Aug 15 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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Bismuth‐Based Photocatalysts for Solar Photocatalytic Carbon Dioxide Conversion
journal, July 2019
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Microbial Community Structure and Methane Cycling Potential along a Thermokarst Pond-Peatland Continuum
journal, October 2019
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Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
journal, February 2020
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Permafrost thawing puts the frozen carbon at risk over the Tibetan Plateau
journal, May 2020
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Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
journal, October 2019
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Microbial Community Structure and Methane Cycling Potential along a Thermokarst Pond-Peatland Continuum
journal, October 2019
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Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release
journal, April 2019
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Contrasting Winter Versus Summer Microbial Communities and Metabolic Functions in a Permafrost Thaw Lake
journal, July 2019
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Size Distributions of Arctic Waterbodies Reveal Consistent Relations in Their Statistical Moments in Space and Time
journal, January 2019
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An Object-Based Classification Method to Detect Methane Ebullition Bubbles in Early Winter Lake Ice
journal, April 2019
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High carbon emissions from thermokarst lakes of Western Siberia
journal, April 2019
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Methane pathways in winter ice of a thermokarst lake–lagoon–coastal water transect in north Siberia
journal, March 2021
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Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change
journal, July 2019
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On the Causes and Consequences of Recent Trends in Atmospheric Methane
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Contrasting lake ice responses to winter climate indicate future variability and trends on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain
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The potential of biotechnology for mitigation of greenhouse gasses effects: solutions, challenges, and future perspectives
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Identification of a Threshold Minimum Area for Reflectance Retrieval from Thermokarst Lakes and Ponds Using Full-Pixel Data from Sentinel-2
journal, March 2019
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Increased high‐latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition
journal, November 2019
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First evidence for cold-adapted anaerobic oxidation of methane in deep sediments of thermokarst lakes
journal, March 2019
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A Complex Interplay between Nitric Oxide, Quorum Sensing, and the Unique Secondary Metabolite Tundrenone Constitutes the Hypoxia Response in Methylobacter
journal, January 2020
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Comparing Spectral Characteristics of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Same-Day Data for Arctic-Boreal Regions
journal, July 2019
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Atmospheric change as a driver of change in the Canadian boreal zone 1
journal, September 2019
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Towards determining spatial methane distribution on Arctic permafrost bluffs with an unmanned aerial system
journal, February 2019
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Comparing Spectral Characteristics of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Same-Day Data for Arctic-Boreal Regions
text, January 2019
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Sunlight induced photo-thermal synergistic catalytic CO2 conversion via localized surface plasmon resonance of MoO3-x
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Cooling down the world oceans and the earth by enhancing the North Atlantic Ocean current
journal, December 2019
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