Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends
Abstract
Trends in short-lived high-temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50- and 30-year periods. A global increase of 0.19°Cper decade during the past 50 years (through 2015) accelerated to 0.25°C per decade during the last 30 years, a faster increase than in the mean annual temperature. Strong positive 30-year trends are detected in large regions of Eurasia and Australia with rates higher than 0.60°C per decade. In cities with more than 5 million inhabitants, where most heat-related fatalities occur, the average change is 0.33°C per decade, while some east Asia cities, Paris, Moscow, and Houston have experienced changes higher than 0.60°Cper decade.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[2];
[1]
- Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1508628
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012711
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Extreme high temperatures; Global change; Regional; Megacities; Heat waves
Citation Formats
Papalexiou, Simon Michael, AghaKouchak, Amir, Trenberth, Kevin E., and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi. Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017ef000709.
Papalexiou, Simon Michael, AghaKouchak, Amir, Trenberth, Kevin E., & Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi. Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000709
Papalexiou, Simon Michael, AghaKouchak, Amir, Trenberth, Kevin E., and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi. Mon .
"Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ef000709. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1508628.
@article{osti_1508628,
title = {Global, Regional, and Megacity Trends in the Highest Temperature of the Year: Diagnostics and Evidence for Accelerating Trends},
author = {Papalexiou, Simon Michael and AghaKouchak, Amir and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi},
abstractNote = {Trends in short-lived high-temperature extremes record a different dimension of change than the extensively studied annual and seasonal mean daily temperatures. They also have important socioeconomic, environmental, and human health implications. Here, we present analysis of the highest temperature of the year for approximately 9000 stations globally, focusing on quantifying spatially explicit exceedance probabilities during the recent 50- and 30-year periods. A global increase of 0.19°Cper decade during the past 50 years (through 2015) accelerated to 0.25°C per decade during the last 30 years, a faster increase than in the mean annual temperature. Strong positive 30-year trends are detected in large regions of Eurasia and Australia with rates higher than 0.60°C per decade. In cities with more than 5 million inhabitants, where most heat-related fatalities occur, the average change is 0.33°C per decade, while some east Asia cities, Paris, Moscow, and Houston have experienced changes higher than 0.60°Cper decade.},
doi = {10.1002/2017ef000709},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 1,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 22 00:00:00 EST 2018},
month = {Mon Jan 22 00:00:00 EST 2018}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: Observed temperature trends in °C per decade in the HTY. Results are shown in 5°×5° grid boxes (baseline period: 1970–1989) and for the 50 years (a) and 30 years (b) ending in 2015.
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