Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources

Masiol, Mauro; Squizzato, Stefania; Cheng, Meng -Dawn; Rich, David Q.; Hopke, Philip K.

doi:10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327

Title: Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources

Abstract

Conditional probability functions are commonly used for source identification purposes in air pollution studies. CBPF (conditional bivariate probability function) categorizes the probability of high concentrations being observed at a location by wind direction/speed and investigate the directionality of local sources. PSCF (potential source contribution function), a trajectory-ensemble method, identifies the source regions most likely to be associated with high measured concentrations. However, these techniques do not allow the direct identification of areas where changes in emissions have occurred. This study presents an extension of conditional probability methods in which the differences between conditional probability values for temporally different sets of data can be used to explore changes in emissions from source locations. The differential CBPF and differential PSCF were tested using a long-term series of air quality data (12 years; 2005/2016) collected in Rochester, NY. The probability functions were computed for each of 4 periods that represent known changes in emissions. Correlation analyses were also performed on the results to find pollutants undergoing similar changes in local and regional sources. The differential probability functions permitted the identification of major changes in local and regional emission location. In Rochester, changes in local air pollution were related to the shutdown of amore »« less

Authors:

Masiol, Mauro ^[1]; Squizzato, Stefania ^[1];

^[2]; Rich, David Q. ^[1]; Hopke, Philip K. ^[3]

Univ. of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Univ. of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY (United States); Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY (United States)

Publication Date:: Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1504018

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Aerosol and Air Quality Research

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-8584

Publisher:: Chinese Association for Aerosol Research in Taiwan

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Differential probability functions; Long-term trends; Air pollution

Citation Formats


                    Masiol, Mauro, Squizzato, Stefania, Cheng, Meng -Dawn, Rich, David Q., and Hopke, Philip K. Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327.

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                    Masiol, Mauro, Squizzato, Stefania, Cheng, Meng -Dawn, Rich, David Q., & Hopke, Philip K. Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327

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                    Masiol, Mauro, Squizzato, Stefania, Cheng, Meng -Dawn, Rich, David Q., and Hopke, Philip K. Tue .  
"Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1504018.

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@article{osti_1504018,

  title        = {Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources},

  author       = {Masiol, Mauro and Squizzato, Stefania and Cheng, Meng -Dawn and Rich, David Q. and Hopke, Philip K.},

  abstractNote = {Conditional probability functions are commonly used for source identification purposes in air pollution studies. CBPF (conditional bivariate probability function) categorizes the probability of high concentrations being observed at a location by wind direction/speed and investigate the directionality of local sources. PSCF (potential source contribution function), a trajectory-ensemble method, identifies the source regions most likely to be associated with high measured concentrations. However, these techniques do not allow the direct identification of areas where changes in emissions have occurred. This study presents an extension of conditional probability methods in which the differences between conditional probability values for temporally different sets of data can be used to explore changes in emissions from source locations. The differential CBPF and differential PSCF were tested using a long-term series of air quality data (12 years; 2005/2016) collected in Rochester, NY. The probability functions were computed for each of 4 periods that represent known changes in emissions. Correlation analyses were also performed on the results to find pollutants undergoing similar changes in local and regional sources. The differential probability functions permitted the identification of major changes in local and regional emission location. In Rochester, changes in local air pollution were related to the shutdown of a large coal power plant (SO2) and to the abatement measures applied to road and off-road traffic (primary pollutants). The concurrent effects of these changes in local emissions were also linked to reduced concentrations of nucleation mode particles. Changes in regional source areas were related to the decreases in secondary inorganic aerosol and organic carbon. As a result, the differential probabilities for sulfate, nitrate, and organic aerosol were consistent with differences in the available National Emission Inventory annual emission values. Changes in the source areas of black carbon and PM2.5 mass concentrations were highly correlated.},

  doi          = {10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327},

  journal      = {Aerosol and Air Quality Research},

  number       = 4,

  volume       = 19,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019},

  month        = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019}

}

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https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2018.09.0327

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Changes in triggering of ST-elevation myocardial infarction by particulate air pollution in Monroe County, New York over time: a case-crossover study
journal, September 2019

Wang, Meng; Hopke, Philip K.; Masiol, Mauro
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Title: Differential Probability Functions for Investigating Long-term Changes in Local and Regional Air Pollution Sources

Abstract

Citation Formats

Identification of secondary organic aerosol episodes and quantitation of primary and secondary organic aerosol concentrations during SCAQS journal, December 1995

Trajectory statistics-A new method to establish source-receptor relationships of air pollutants and its application to the transport of particulate sulfate in Europe journal, February 1996

Comparison between Conditional Probability Function and Nonparametric Regression for Fine Particle Source Directions journal, September 2004

Estimated accuracy of three common trajectory statistical methods journal, October 2011

Aircraft engine exhaust emissions and other airport-related contributions to ambient air pollution: A review journal, October 2014

Air quality status and trends in Europe journal, December 2014

Quantification of air quality impacts of London Heathrow Airport (UK) from 2005 to 2012 journal, September 2015

Application of meteorology-based methods to determine local and external contributions to particulate matter pollution: A case study in Venice (Italy) journal, October 2015

PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants in New York State during 2005–2016: Spatial variability, temporal trends, and economic influences journal, June 2018

Triggering of cardiovascular hospital admissions by fine particle concentrations in New York state: Before, during, and after implementation of multiple environmental policies and a recession journal, November 2018

Characterising and understanding emission sources using bivariate polar plots and k-means clustering journal, February 2013

Conditional bivariate probability function for source identification journal, September 2014

Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem: READY journal, September 2017

Chemical characterization of particulate emissions from diesel engines: A review journal, November 2007

A procedure to assess local and long-range transport contributions to PM2.5 and secondary inorganic aerosol journal, April 2012

Characterization of fine particle sources in the Great Smoky Mountains area journal, September 2006

Comparison of sources of submicron particle number concentrations measured at two sites in Rochester, NY journal, September 2009

Air quality across a European hotspot: Spatial gradients, seasonality, diurnal cycles and trends in the Veneto region, NE Italy journal, January 2017

Air pollution at Rochester, NY: Long-term trends and multivariate analysis of upwind SO2 source impacts journal, January 2018

Long-term trends in submicron particle concentrations in a metropolitan area of the northeastern United States journal, August 2018

Application and comparison of two statistical trajectory techniques for identification of source regions of atmospheric aerosol species journal, December 2002

Comparative Application of Multiple Receptor Methods To Identify Aerosol Sources in Northern Vermont journal, December 2001

The Public Health Benefits of Reducing Fine Particulate Matter through Conversion to Cleaner Heating Fuels in New York City journal, November 2014

Using Aerosol Light Absorption Measurements for the Quantitative Determination of Wood Burning and Traffic Emission Contributions to Particulate Matter journal, May 2008

Source Identification of Atlanta Aerosol by Positive Matrix Factorization journal, June 2003

Estimation of Organic Carbon Blank Values and Error Structures of the Speciation Trends Network Data for Source Apportionment journal, August 2005

Review of receptor modeling methods for source apportionment journal, December 2015

A Simple Procedure for Correcting Loading Effects of Aethalometer Data journal, October 2007

Clinical outcomes of adjuvant radiation therapy and prognostic factors in early stage uterine cervical cancer journal, January 2015

Changes in triggering of ST-elevation myocardial infarction by particulate air pollution in Monroe County, New York over time: a case-crossover study journal, September 2019

Identification of secondary organic aerosol episodes and quantitation of primary and secondary organic aerosol concentrations during SCAQS
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Trajectory statistics-A new method to establish source-receptor relationships of air pollutants and its application to the transport of particulate sulfate in Europe
journal, February 1996

Comparison between Conditional Probability Function and Nonparametric Regression for Fine Particle Source Directions
journal, September 2004

Estimated accuracy of three common trajectory statistical methods
journal, October 2011

Aircraft engine exhaust emissions and other airport-related contributions to ambient air pollution: A review
journal, October 2014

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Quantification of air quality impacts of London Heathrow Airport (UK) from 2005 to 2012
journal, September 2015

Application of meteorology-based methods to determine local and external contributions to particulate matter pollution: A case study in Venice (Italy)
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PM2.5 and gaseous pollutants in New York State during 2005–2016: Spatial variability, temporal trends, and economic influences
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Triggering of cardiovascular hospital admissions by fine particle concentrations in New York state: Before, during, and after implementation of multiple environmental policies and a recession
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Changes in triggering of ST-elevation myocardial infarction by particulate air pollution in Monroe County, New York over time: a case-crossover study
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