Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies
Abstract
There exist several different reliability-and approximation-based methods to determine the contribution of solar resources toward resource adequacy. However, most of these approaches require knowing in advance the installed capacities of both conventional and solar generators. This is a complication since generator capacities are actually decision variables in capacity planning studies. In this paper, we study the effect of time resolution and solar PV penetration using a planning model that accounts for the full distribution of generator outages and solar resource variability. We also describe a modification of a standard deterministic planning model that enforces a resource adequacy target through a reserve margin constraint. Our numerical experiments show that at least 50 days worth of data are necessary to approximate the results of the full-resolution model with a maximum error of 2.5% on costs and capacity. We also show that the amount of displaced capacity of conventional generation decreases rapidly as the penetration of solar PV increases. We find that using an exogenously defined and constant capacity value based on time-series data can yield relatively accurate results for small penetration levels. For higher penetration levels, the modified deterministic planning model better captures avoided costs and the decreasing value of solar PV.
- Authors:
-
- Univ. Adolfo Ibez, Santiago (Chile)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1501374
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 6; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1949-3029
- Publisher:
- IEEE
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY; Approximation techniques; capacity value; generation planning; installed reserve margin; solar
Citation Formats
Munoz, Francisco D., and Mills, Andrew D. Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019.
Munoz, Francisco D., & Mills, Andrew D. Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies. United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019
Munoz, Francisco D., and Mills, Andrew D. Thu .
"Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies". United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1501374.
@article{osti_1501374,
title = {Endogenous Assessment of the Capacity Value of Solar PV in Generation Investment Planning Studies},
author = {Munoz, Francisco D. and Mills, Andrew D.},
abstractNote = {There exist several different reliability-and approximation-based methods to determine the contribution of solar resources toward resource adequacy. However, most of these approaches require knowing in advance the installed capacities of both conventional and solar generators. This is a complication since generator capacities are actually decision variables in capacity planning studies. In this paper, we study the effect of time resolution and solar PV penetration using a planning model that accounts for the full distribution of generator outages and solar resource variability. We also describe a modification of a standard deterministic planning model that enforces a resource adequacy target through a reserve margin constraint. Our numerical experiments show that at least 50 days worth of data are necessary to approximate the results of the full-resolution model with a maximum error of 2.5% on costs and capacity. We also show that the amount of displaced capacity of conventional generation decreases rapidly as the penetration of solar PV increases. We find that using an exogenously defined and constant capacity value based on time-series data can yield relatively accurate results for small penetration levels. For higher penetration levels, the modified deterministic planning model better captures avoided costs and the decreasing value of solar PV.},
doi = {10.1109/TSTE.2015.2456019},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy},
number = 4,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Thu Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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