Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Dong, Lu; Leung, L. Ruby; Song, Fengfei

doi:10.1029/2018GL079900

Title: Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Abstract

Abstract Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall‐related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Overall, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid‐to‐high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.

Authors:

^[1];

^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Publication Date:: Mon Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2018

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1497678

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1487162

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-136949
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, and Song, Fengfei. Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1029/2018GL079900.

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                    Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, & Song, Fengfei. Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079900

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                    Dong, Lu, Leung, L. Ruby, and Song, Fengfei. Mon .  
"Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079900.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1497678.

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@article{osti_1497678,

  title        = {Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming},

  author       = {Dong, Lu and Leung, L. Ruby and Song, Fengfei},

  abstractNote = {Abstract Changes in subseasonal precipitation variability have important implications for predictability of weather and climate extreme. Here we explore the mechanisms that lead to future changes in subseasonal precipitation variability in North America during winter based on 20 state‐of‐the‐art climate models. Modeling evidences indicate that in a warmer climate, the subseasonal precipitation variability consistently increases over most of North America, with intensified swing between the wet and dry extremes, but declines over Mexico. Using a moisture budget decomposition framework, two opposing mechanisms are established: the thermodynamic component from increasing moisture due to global warming intensifies the subseasonal precipitation variability, while the dynamic component from the projected reduction in subseasonal rainfall‐related circulation variability has an opposite effect. Overall, the thermodynamic effect wins the tug of war at the mid‐to‐high latitudes over most of North America, while the dynamic effect overwhelms the thermodynamic effect in Mexico, creating distinct changes in subseasonal precipitation variability.},

  doi          = {10.1029/2018GL079900},

  journal      = {Geophysical Research Letters},

  number       = 22,

  volume       = 45,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2018},

  month        = {Mon Nov 05 00:00:00 EST 2018}

}

Copy to clipboard

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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079900

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Title: Future Changes of Subseasonal Precipitation Variability in North America During Winter Under Global Warming

Abstract

Citation Formats

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate journal, December 2017

Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming journal, February 2012

Mechanisms for a PNA-Like Teleconnection Pattern in Response to the MJO journal, June 2017

Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales: PREDICTION OF Z500 AT S2S TIME SCALES journal, January 2018

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India journal, March 2018

The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events journal, March 2018

Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events along the Pacific Northwest Coast: Climatology and Synoptic Evolution journal, July 2012

Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America journal, August 2018

Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events in California and Relationships with the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal, October 2000

Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation journal, February 2018

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North American Regional Reanalysis journal, March 2006

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Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast journal, October 2018

Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies: Detection of Atmospheric Rivers journal, December 2015

ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States* journal, September 1999

Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California journal, April 2018

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe journal, September 2016

Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate journal, October 2015

Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model journal, September 1995

Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought journal, June 2012

A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate journal, August 2018

Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period journal, September 1972

Modulation of Cold-Season U.S. Daily Precipitation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal, October 2011

Advancing atmospheric river forecasts into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales: Forecasting ARs at S2S Time Scales journal, July 2017

Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming journal, April 2009

On the Height of the Tropopause and the Static Stability of the Troposphere journal, February 1982

Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming journal, January 2007

Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change journal, April 2015

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming journal, September 2010

A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States journal, February 2011

Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming journal, November 2006

Baroclinic Adjustment journal, April 1978

Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers journal, January 2006

The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World journal, September 2016

Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation? journal, January 2011

Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation journal, September 2007

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming text, January 2010

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather journal, August 2019

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
journal, December 2017

Changes in a modeled MJO with idealized global warming
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Mechanisms for a PNA-Like Teleconnection Pattern in Response to the MJO
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Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden-Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales: PREDICTION OF Z500 AT S2S TIME SCALES
journal, January 2018

Contributions of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Scaling in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India
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The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events
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Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events along the Pacific Northwest Coast: Climatology and Synoptic Evolution
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Impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Storm-Track Activity, Surface Air Temperature, and Precipitation over North America
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Occurrence of Extreme Precipitation Events in California and Relationships with the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, October 2000

Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation
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The MJO and global warming: a study in CCSM4
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North American Regional Reanalysis
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Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming
journal, April 2013

Robust increases in midlatitude static stability in simulations of global warming
journal, January 2006

Does the Madden–Julian Oscillation Influence Wintertime Atmospheric Rivers and Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada?
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Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming
journal, August 2018

Polarized Response of East Asian Winter Temperature Extremes in the Era of Arctic Warming
journal, July 2018

Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast
journal, October 2018

Detection of atmospheric rivers: Evaluation and application of an algorithm for global studies: Detection of Atmospheric Rivers
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ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States*
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Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe
journal, September 2016

Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate
journal, October 2015

Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 ₂ in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model
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Consensus on Twenty-First-Century Rainfall Projections in Climate Models More Widespread than Previously Thought
journal, June 2012

A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate
journal, August 2018

Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period
journal, September 1972

Modulation of Cold-Season U.S. Daily Precipitation by the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, October 2011

Advancing atmospheric river forecasts into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales: Forecasting ARs at S2S Time Scales
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Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming
journal, April 2009

On the Height of the Tropopause and the Static Stability of the Troposphere
journal, February 1982

Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming
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Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change
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Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming
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journal, February 2011

Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006

Baroclinic Adjustment
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Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers
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The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World
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Will global warming modify the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation?
journal, January 2011

Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation
journal, September 2007

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming
text, January 2010

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather
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