Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs
Abstract
Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.
- Authors:
-
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Insight Decisions, LLC, Denver, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office; International Energy Agency Wind (IEA Wind), Indianapolis, IN (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1454489
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AC36-09GO28308; 1068864
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Energy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 10; Related Information: © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 17 WIND ENERGY
Citation Formats
Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, and Smith, Aaron. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1038/nenergy.2016.135.
Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, & Smith, Aaron. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135
Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, and Smith, Aaron. Mon .
"Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1454489.
@article{osti_1454489,
title = {Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs},
author = {Wiser, Ryan and Jenni, Karen and Seel, Joachim and Baker, Erin and Hand, Maureen and Lantz, Eric and Smith, Aaron},
abstractNote = {Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.},
doi = {10.1038/nenergy.2016.135},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 10,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Sep 12 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Mon Sep 12 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 171 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Learning curves for emerging energy technologies
journal, November 2009
- Mukora, A.; Winksel, M.; Jeffrey, H. F.
- Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Energy, Vol. 162, Issue 4
Potential contribution of wind energy to climate change mitigation
journal, June 2014
- Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 8
Wind power learning rates: A conceptual review and meta-analysis
journal, May 2012
- Lindman, Åsa; Söderholm, Patrik
- Energy Economics, Vol. 34, Issue 3
Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy
journal, May 2014
- Morgan, M. G.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 20
Unravelling historical cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe
journal, January 2016
- Voormolen, J. A.; Junginger, H. M.; van Sark, W. G. J. H. M.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 88
Cost development of future technologies for power generation—A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments
journal, June 2008
- Neij, Lena
- Energy Policy, Vol. 36, Issue 6
Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies: Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Expert Confidence
journal, March 2016
- Nemet, Gregory F.; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Verdolini, Elena
- Risk Analysis, Vol. 37, Issue 2
Offshore wind investments – Realism about cost developments is necessary
journal, July 2016
- Schwanitz, Valeria Jana; Wierling, August
- Energy, Vol. 106
Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data
journal, May 2015
- Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina; Anadon, Laura Diaz
- Energy Policy, Vol. 80
Technology Improvement Opportunities for Low Wind Speed Turbines and Implications for Cost of Energy Reduction
report, February 2008
- Cohen, J.; Schweizer, T.; Laxson, A.
The effects of expert selection, elicitation design, and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics
journal, May 2015
- Verdolini, Elena; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Lu, Jiaqi
- Energy Policy, Vol. 80
Technology learning in the presence of public R&D: The case of European wind power
journal, October 2010
- Ek, Kristina; Söderholm, Patrik
- Ecological Economics, Vol. 69, Issue 12
Geophysical limits to global wind power
journal, September 2012
- Marvel, Kate; Kravitz, Ben; Caldeira, Ken
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Cost Reduction Prospects for Offshore Wind Farms
journal, January 2004
- Junginger, Martin; Faaij, André; Turkenburg, Wim C.
- Wind Engineering, Vol. 28, Issue 1
On the economics of renewable energy sources
journal, December 2013
- Edenhofer, Ottmar; Hirth, Lion; Knopf, Brigitte
- Energy Economics, Vol. 40
Economies of scale, learning effects and offshore wind development costs
journal, November 2015
- Dismukes, David E.; Upton, Gregory B.
- Renewable Energy, Vol. 83
Upscaling wind turbines: theoretical and practical aspects and their impact on the cost of energy: Upscaling wind turbines: theoretical and practical aspects
journal, January 2012
- Sieros, G.; Chaviaropoulos, P.; Sørensen, J. D.
- Wind Energy, Vol. 15, Issue 1
Branch technical position on the use of expert elicitation in the high-level radioactive waste program
report, November 1996
- Kotra, J. P.; Lee, M. P.; Eisenberg, N. A.
The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design
journal, August 2013
- Anadón, Laura Díaz; Nemet, Gregory; Verdolini, Elena
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3
A stakeholder analysis of divergent supply-chain trends for the European onshore and offshore wind installations
journal, May 2015
- Wüstemeyer, Christoph; Madlener, Reinhard; Bunn, Derek W.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 80
Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: An assessment with the POLES model
journal, January 2015
- Criqui, P.; Mima, S.; Menanteau, P.
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 90
The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios
journal, October 2013
- Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine
- Climatic Change, Vol. 123, Issue 3-4
The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure
journal, April 2010
- Knol, Anne B.; Slottje, Pauline; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.
- Environmental Health, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Expert Assessments of Future Photovoltaic Technologies
journal, December 2008
- Curtright, Aimee E.; Morgan, M. Granger; Keith, David W.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 42, Issue 24
The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change
report, January 2009
- Nordhaus, William D.
Bending the learning curve
journal, December 2015
- Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan; Verdolini, Elena; Tavoni, Massimo
- Energy Economics, Vol. 52
Future cost-competitive electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions
journal, January 2016
- MacDonald, Alexander E.; Clack, Christopher T. M.; Alexander, Anneliese
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios
journal, January 2014
- Cochran, Jaquelin; Mai, Trieu; Bazilian, Morgan
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 29
Probabilistic decision model of wind power investment and influence of green power market
journal, December 2013
- Gillenwater, Michael
- Energy Policy, Vol. 63
Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: A component-learning hypothesis
journal, July 2009
- Ferioli, F.; Schoots, K.; van der Zwaan, B. C. C.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 7
The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing
journal, June 1962
- Arrow, Kenneth J.
- The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, Issue 3
Cost reductions for offshore wind power: Exploring the balance between scaling, learning and R&D
journal, May 2012
- van der Zwaan, Bob; Rivera-Tinoco, Rodrigo; Lensink, Sander
- Renewable Energy, Vol. 41
A review of uncertainties in technology experience curves
journal, May 2012
- Yeh, Sonia; Rubin, Edward S.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 34, Issue 3
A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies
journal, November 2015
- Rubin, Edward S.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Jaramillo, Paulina
- Energy Policy, Vol. 86
Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies
journal, May 2011
- Joskow, Paul L.
- American Economic Review, Vol. 101, Issue 3
The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change
journal, January 2014
- Nordhaus, William D.
- The Energy Journal, Vol. 35, Issue 1
Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts' Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies.
text, January 2017
- Nemet, Gregory F.; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Verdolini, Elena
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design
journal, January 2013
- Diaz Anadon, Laura; Nemet, Gregory F.; Verdolini, Elena
- SSRN Electronic Journal
The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing
book, January 1971
- Arrow, K. J.
- Readings in the Theory of Growth
Bending the Learning Curve
journal, January 2015
- Witajewski, Jan; Verdolini, Elena; Tavoni, Massimo
- SSRN Electronic Journal
An Analysis of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman's Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
book, July 2017
- Morvan, Camille; Jenkins, William J.
‘The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design
text, January 2018
- Diaz Anadon, Laura; Nemet, Gf; Verdolini, E.
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
The effects of expert selection, elicitation design and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics
text, January 2018
- Diaz Anadon, Laura; Verdolini, E.; Lu, J.
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Works referencing / citing this record:
Scavenging Wind Energy by Triboelectric Nanogenerators
journal, January 2018
- Chen, Bo; Yang, Ya; Wang, Zhong Lin
- Advanced Energy Materials, Vol. 8, Issue 10
Long‐Lifetime Triboelectric Nanogenerator Operated in Conjunction Modes and Low Crest Factor
journal, January 2020
- Li, Xinyuan; Yin, Xing; Zhao, Zhihao
- Advanced Energy Materials, Vol. 10, Issue 7
Wind tunnel quantification of dynamic stall on an S817 airfoil and its control using synthetic jet actuators
journal, September 2018
- Rice, Thomas T.; Taylor, Keith; Amitay, Michael
- Wind Energy, Vol. 22, Issue 1
A new seismic‐based monitoring approach for wind turbines
journal, December 2018
- Hu, Weifei; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Letson, Frederick
- Wind Energy, Vol. 22, Issue 4
AK‐DA: An efficient method for the fatigue assessment of wind turbine structures
journal, January 2019
- Huchet, Quentin; Mattrand, Cécile; Beaurepaire, Pierre
- Wind Energy, Vol. 22, Issue 5
Wind energy variability and links to regional and synoptic scale weather
journal, August 2018
- Millstein, Dev; Solomon-Culp, Joshua; Wang, Meina
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 7-8
Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions
journal, May 2017
- Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina
- Nature Energy, Vol. 2, Issue 5
Economics of converting renewable power to hydrogen
journal, February 2019
- Glenk, Gunther; Reichelstein, Stefan
- Nature Energy, Vol. 4, Issue 3
20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate
journal, January 2020
- Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Shepherd, T. J.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Electrochemically growth-controlled honeycomb-like NiMoO 4 nanoporous network on nickel foam and its applications in all-solid-state asymmetric supercapacitors
journal, January 2018
- Kumbhar, Vijay S.; Nguyen, Van Quang; Lee, Yong Rok
- New Journal of Chemistry, Vol. 42, Issue 18
The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change
journal, February 2018
- Evans, Jason P.; Kay, Merlinde; Prasad, Abhnil
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 2
A sunny future: expert elicitation of China's solar photovoltaic technologies
journal, March 2018
- Lam, Long T.; Branstetter, Lee; Azevedo, Inês L.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 3
Profitability optimization of a wind power plant performed through different optimization algorithms and a data-driven RANS solver
conference, January 2018
- Santhanagopalan, Vignesh; Letizia, Stefano; Zhan, Lu
- 2018 Wind Energy Symposium
Assessment of Renewable Energy Deployment Roadmaps
journal, July 2019
- Mauleón, Ignacio
- Energies, Vol. 12, Issue 15
Large Eddy Simuation of an Onshore Wind Farm with the Actuator Line Model Including Wind Turbine’s Control Below and Above Rated Wind Speed
journal, September 2019
- Guggeri, Andrés; Draper, Martín
- Energies, Vol. 12, Issue 18
Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions
text, January 2017
- Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Wind power potential and intermittency issues in the context of climate change
journal, July 2021
- Cai, Yiling; Bréon, François-Marie
- Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 240
20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate
journal, January 2020
- Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Shepherd, T. J.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1