Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming
Abstract
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.
- Authors:
-
- Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States)
- Central Weather Bureau, Taipei (Taiwan)
- Gwangju Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1439712
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-124045
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276; KP1703010
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Arctic warming; accelerated increase; extreme weather; tropospheric warming; Arctic Oscillation; sea ice loss
Citation Formats
Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Lin, Yen-Heng, Lee, Ming-Ying, Yoon, Jin-Ho, Meyer, Jonathan D. D., and Rasch, Philip J. Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL073012.
Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Lin, Yen-Heng, Lee, Ming-Ying, Yoon, Jin-Ho, Meyer, Jonathan D. D., & Rasch, Philip J. Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073012
Wang, S. -Y. Simon, Lin, Yen-Heng, Lee, Ming-Ying, Yoon, Jin-Ho, Meyer, Jonathan D. D., and Rasch, Philip J. Thu .
"Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073012. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1439712.
@article{osti_1439712,
title = {Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming},
author = {Wang, S. -Y. Simon and Lin, Yen-Heng and Lee, Ming-Ying and Yoon, Jin-Ho and Meyer, Jonathan D. D. and Rasch, Philip J.},
abstractNote = {In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL073012},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Thu Mar 23 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents
journal, January 2010
- Petoukhov, Vladimir; Semenov, Vladimir A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D21
Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections
journal, January 2014
- Butler, Amy H.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Deser, Clara
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Recent Extreme Arctic Temperatures are due to a Split Polar Vortex
journal, August 2016
- Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 15
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts: Stratospheric Predictability and Tropospheric Forecasts
journal, October 2014
- Tripathi, Om P.; Baldwin, Mark; Charlton-Perez, Andrew
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 689
Unusual extremes in the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation during 2009: EXTREMES IN NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
journal, May 2010
- L'Heureux, Michelle; Butler, Amy; Jha, Bhaskar
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 10
On the yearly phase delay of winter intraseasonal mode in the western United States
journal, May 2013
- Wang, Shih-Yu; Gillies, Robert R.; van den Dool, Huug
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 5-6
Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature
journal, November 2007
- Reynolds, Richard W.; Smith, Thomas M.; Liu, Chunying
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 22
The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields
journal, May 1998
- Thompson, David W. J.; Wallace, John M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 25, Issue 9
The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño
journal, December 2008
- Ineson, S.; Scaife, A. A.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 1
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification
journal, January 2009
- Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.; Stroeve, J. C.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 3, Issue 1
The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems
journal, December 2014
- Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Bellucci, Alessio; Hermanson, Leon
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24
Baroclinic Instability in High Latitudes Induced by Polar Vortex: A Connection to the Arctic Oscillation
journal, January 2002
- Tanaka, H. L.; Tokinaga, Hiroki
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 59, Issue 1
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks
journal, February 2007
- Charlton, Andrew J.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 3
Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia
journal, August 2015
- Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Jang, Yeon-Soo
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 10
Mechanisms of Arctic Surface Air Temperature Change in Response to the Madden–Julian Oscillation
journal, September 2012
- Yoo, Changhyun; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 17
An Assessment of the Impact of Transient Eddies on the Zonal Flow during a Blocking Episode Using Localized Eliassen-Palm Flux Diagnostics
journal, October 1986
- Trenberth, Kevin E.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 43, Issue 19
Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss
journal, September 2014
- Kim, Baek-Min; Son, Seok-Woo; Min, Seung-Ki
- Nature Communications, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Boreal Winter Links between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation
journal, June 2008
- L’Heureux, Michelle L.; Higgins, R. Wayne
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 12
Effects of Arctic Sea Ice Decline on Weather and Climate: A Review
journal, March 2014
- Vihma, Timo
- Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 35, Issue 5
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
journal, August 2014
- Cohen, Judah; Screen, James A.; Furtado, Jason C.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 9
The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns
journal, February 2016
- Johnson, Nathaniel C.; Kosaka, Yu
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 12
Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction
journal, May 2014
- Jung, Thomas; Kasper, Marta Anna; Semmler, Tido
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 10
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002
- Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11
The Role of Barents Sea Ice in the Wintertime Cyclone Track and Emergence of a Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly
journal, April 2012
- Inoue, Jun; Hori, Masatake E.; Takaya, Koutarou
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 7
Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere
journal, December 1999
- Baldwin, Mark P.; Dunkerton, Timothy J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 104, Issue D24
Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather: ARCTIC WARMING AND MID-LATITUDE WEATHER
journal, March 2013
- Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 5
Observed and Simulated Intraseasonal Variability of the Wintertime Planetary Circulation
journal, June 1988
- Horel, John D.; Mechoso, Carlos R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 1, Issue 6
Effect of Synoptic Systems on the Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
journal, October 2005
- Löptien, Ulrike; Ruprecht, Eberhard
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 133, Issue 10
The Arctic climate paradox: The recent decrease of the Arctic Oscillation
journal, January 2005
- Overland, J. E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 6
Far-flung effects of Arctic warming
journal, March 2017
- Screen, James A.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Compounding effects of warm sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice on the extreme circulation over the extratropical North Pacific and North America during the 2013–2014 boreal winter
journal, March 2015
- Lee, Ming‐Ying; Hong, Chi‐Cherng; Hsu, Huang‐Hsiung
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 5
Response of Sea Ice to the Arctic Oscillation
journal, September 2002
- Rigor, Ignatius G.; Wallace, John M.; Colony, Roger L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 18
Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and Cold Surges over East Asia
journal, January 2011
- Park, Tae-Won; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Yang, Song
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 1
Eliassen-Palm Cross Sections for the Troposphere
journal, December 1980
- Edmon, H. J.; Hoskins, B. J.; McIntyre, M. E.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 12
Influence of low Arctic sea‐ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters
journal, January 2009
- Honda, Meiji; Inoue, Jun; Yamane, Shozo
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 8
Arctic oscillation and Arctic sea-ice oscillation
journal, May 2000
- Wang, Jia; Ikeda, Moto
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 9
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
journal, October 2016
- Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11
The Life Cycle of the Northern Hemisphere Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
journal, July 2004
- Limpasuvan, Varavut; Thompson, David W. J.; Hartmann, Dennis L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 13
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996
- Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3
Defining Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
journal, November 2015
- Butler, Amy H.; Seidel, Dian J.; Hardiman, Steven C.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 11
Intraseasonal Tropospheric Circulation Variability and its Association with Concurrent Atmospheric and Oceanic Fields
journal, September 1984
- Harnack, Robert P.; Crane, Mark W.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 112, Issue 9
Winter 2009-2010: A case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event: CASE STUDY OF WINTER 2009
journal, September 2010
- Cohen, Judah; Foster, James; Barlow, Mathew
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 17
Stationary Wave Interference and Its Relation to Tropical Convection and Arctic Warming
journal, February 2016
- Goss, Michael; Feldstein, Steven B.; Lee, Sukyoung
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 4
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
journal, March 2014
- Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Wu, Xingren
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6
The Impact of Poleward Moisture and Sensible Heat Flux on Arctic Winter Sea Ice Variability
journal, July 2015
- Park, Hyo-Seok; Lee, Sukyoung; Son, Seok-Woo
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 13
Works referencing / citing this record:
Impact of atmospheric heat and moisture transport on the Arctic warming
journal, February 2019
- Alekseev, Genrikh; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 8
Two Impacts of Arctic Rapid Tropospheric Daily Warming From Different Warm Temperature Advection on Cold Winters Over Northern Hemisphere
journal, September 2019
- Wang, Cen; Ren, Baohua; Zheng, Jianqiu
- Earth and Space Science, Vol. 6, Issue 9
Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States
journal, March 2018
- Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1