Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
Abstract
Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide here updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the datarich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished fromsampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition,OHC changes in sixmajor oceans are reliable on decadal timescales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significantmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[2];
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics and International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Centers for Environmental Information, Silver Spring, MD (United States)
- Univ. of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) (China); National Science Foundation of China; National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1425658
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012711; 41506029; 41476016; 2016YFC1401800; 1243125; NNH11ZDA001N
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2375-2548
- Publisher:
- AAAS
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth’s energy imbalance; ocean heat content; sampling; mapping; subsample test; global warming; decadal variability; hiatus
Citation Formats
Cheng, Lijing, Trenberth, Kevin E., Fasullo, John, Boyer, Tim, Abraham, John, and Zhu, Jiang. Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601545.
Cheng, Lijing, Trenberth, Kevin E., Fasullo, John, Boyer, Tim, Abraham, John, & Zhu, Jiang. Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015. United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545
Cheng, Lijing, Trenberth, Kevin E., Fasullo, John, Boyer, Tim, Abraham, John, and Zhu, Jiang. Fri .
"Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015". United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1425658.
@article{osti_1425658,
title = {Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015},
author = {Cheng, Lijing and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Fasullo, John and Boyer, Tim and Abraham, John and Zhu, Jiang},
abstractNote = {Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide here updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the datarich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished fromsampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition,OHC changes in sixmajor oceans are reliable on decadal timescales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601545},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = 3,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Mar 10 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Fri Mar 10 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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Steric Sea Level Changes from Ocean Reanalyses at Global and Regional Scales
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The Molecular Basis for Understanding the Impacts of Ocean Warming
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Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016
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Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise
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Climate Change Projected to Exacerbate Impacts of Coastal Eutrophication in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
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More Than 50 Years of Successful Continuous Temperature Section Measurements by the Global Expendable Bathythermograph Network, Its Integrability, Societal Benefits, and Future
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Confirmation of ENSO-Southern Ocean Teleconnections Using Satellite-Derived SST
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On the Time Evolution of Climate Sensitivity and Future Warming
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Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO 2 emissions
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Improved representation of ocean heat content in energy balance models
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Estimating global ocean heat content from tidal magnetic satellite observations
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2017 was the warmest year on record for the global ocean
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Ocean Climate Observing Requirements in Support of Climate Research and Climate Information
journal, July 2019
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Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends
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Pathways to 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming based on observational and geological constraints
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Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition
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The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era
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Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim
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Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition
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The relation between natural variations in ocean heat uptake and global mean surface temperature anomalies in CMIP5
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Subsurface ocean flywheel of coupled climate variability in the Barents Sea hotspot of global warming
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Towards the integration of animal‐borne instruments into global ocean observing systems
journal, November 2019
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An updated version of the global interior ocean biogeochemical data product, GLODAPv2.2020
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