Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures
Abstract
The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The modelmore »
- Authors:
-
[2];
[1];
[4];
[1];
[6];
[1]
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
- Sun Yat-Sen Univ., Guangzhou, (China). School of Atmospheric Sciences
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1416921
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Sanderson, Benjamin M., Xu, Yangyang, Tebaldi, Claudia, Wehner, Michael, O'Neill, Brian, Jahn, Alexandra, Pendergrass, Angeline G., Lehner, Flavio, Strand, Warren G., Lin, Lei, Knutti, Reto, and Lamarque, Jean Francois. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.5194/esd-8-827-2017.
Sanderson, Benjamin M., Xu, Yangyang, Tebaldi, Claudia, Wehner, Michael, O'Neill, Brian, Jahn, Alexandra, Pendergrass, Angeline G., Lehner, Flavio, Strand, Warren G., Lin, Lei, Knutti, Reto, & Lamarque, Jean Francois. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017
Sanderson, Benjamin M., Xu, Yangyang, Tebaldi, Claudia, Wehner, Michael, O'Neill, Brian, Jahn, Alexandra, Pendergrass, Angeline G., Lehner, Flavio, Strand, Warren G., Lin, Lei, Knutti, Reto, and Lamarque, Jean Francois. Tue .
"Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-827-2017. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1416921.
@article{osti_1416921,
title = {Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures},
author = {Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Xu, Yangyang and Tebaldi, Claudia and Wehner, Michael and O'Neill, Brian and Jahn, Alexandra and Pendergrass, Angeline G. and Lehner, Flavio and Strand, Warren G. and Lin, Lei and Knutti, Reto and Lamarque, Jean Francois},
abstractNote = {The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-8-827-2017},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Sep 19 00:00:00 EDT 2017},
month = {Tue Sep 19 00:00:00 EDT 2017}
}
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Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming and implications for regional impacts
text, January 2018
- Camille, Li,; Clio, Michel,; S., Graff, Lise
- ETH Zurich
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
journal, January 2019
- Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models
journal, July 2019
- Olson, R.; An, S. -I.; Fan, Y.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Different multi-year mean temperature in mid-summer of South China under different 1.5 °C warming scenarios
journal, September 2018
- Qu, Xia; Huang, Gang
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
journal, November 2019
- Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Iles, David
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 3
Regional Temperature Response in Central Asia to National Committed Emission Reductions
journal, July 2019
- Zhang, Jintao; Wang, Fang
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 16, Issue 15
Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble
text, January 2018
- Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann
- ETH Zurich
Approaches to attribution of extreme temperature and precipitation events using multi-model and single-member ensembles of general circulation models
journal, January 2019
- Lewis, Sophie C.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; King, Andrew D.
- Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 5, Issue 2
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
journal, January 2020
- Sanderson, Benjamin
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 2
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds
journal, January 2018
- Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts
journal, January 2018
- Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C
journal, January 2018
- Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Deng, Jiechun
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Assessments of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming
journal, June 2018
- Wang, Aihui; Xu, Lianlian; Kong, Xianghui
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 2