Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity
Abstract
Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapo-transpiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline modelsmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences and Dept. of Biology
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Computer Science & Mathematics Division and Environmental Sciences Division
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate & Ecosystem Sciences Division
- Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1377477
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AGS-1321745
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 113; Journal Issue: 36; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
- Publisher:
- National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; drought; global warming; climate impact; evaporation; global hydrology
Citation Formats
Swann, Abigail L. S., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., and Randerson, James T. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1073/pnas.1604581113.
Swann, Abigail L. S., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., & Randerson, James T. Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity. United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113
Swann, Abigail L. S., Hoffman, Forrest M., Koven, Charles D., and Randerson, James T. Mon .
"Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity". United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377477.
@article{osti_1377477,
title = {Plant responses to increasing CO2 reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity},
author = {Swann, Abigail L. S. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Koven, Charles D. and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {Rising atmospheric CO2 will make Earth warmer, and many studies have inferred that this warming will cause droughts to become more widespread and severe. However, rising atmospheric CO2 also modifies stomatal conductance and plant water use, processes that are often are overlooked in impact analysis. We find that plant physiological responses to CO2 reduce predictions of future drought stress, and that this reduction is captured by using plant-centric rather than atmosphere-centric metrics from Earth system models (ESMs). The atmosphere-centric Palmer Drought Severity Index predicts future increases in drought stress for more than 70% of global land area. This area drops to 37% with the use of precipitation minus evapo-transpiration (P-E), a measure that represents the water flux available to downstream ecosystems and humans. The two metrics yield consistent estimates of increasing stress in regions where precipitation decreases are more robust (southern North America, northeastern South America, and southern Europe). The metrics produce diverging estimates elsewhere, with P-E predicting decreasing stress across temperate Asia and central Africa. The differing sensitivity of drought metrics to radiative and physiological aspects of increasing CO2 partly explains the divergent estimates of future drought reported in recent studies. Further, use of ESM output in offline models may double-count plant feedbacks on relative humidity and other surface variables, leading to overestimates of future stress. The use of drought metrics that account for the response of plant transpiration to changing CO2, including direct use of P-E and soil moisture from ESMs, is needed to reduce uncertainties in future assessment.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1604581113},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = 36,
volume = 113,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Mon Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
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Microclimatic buffering in forests of the future: the role of local water balance
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Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change
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Effect of elevated CO2 and spectral quality on whole plant gas exchange patterns in tomatoes
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Hydrologic implications of vegetation response to elevated CO2 in climate projections
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Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration
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Comparing optimal and empirical stomatal conductance models for application in Earth system models
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Precipitation thresholds regulate net carbon exchange at the continental scale
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Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century
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A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era
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Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
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Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models
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Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States
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Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model
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