Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; Sanford, Gregg; Thelen, Kurt D.

doi:10.1111/gcbb.12320

Title: Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Abstract

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.

Authors:

Skevas, Theodoros ^[1]; Swinton, Scott M. ^[2]; Tanner, Sophia ^[2]; Sanford, Gregg ^[3]; Thelen, Kurt D. ^[2]

Univ. of Florida, Wimauma, FL (United States)
Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2015

Research Org.:: Univ. of Florida, Wimauma, FL (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI Identifier:: 1363930

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-07ER64494

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1757-1693

Publisher:: Wiley

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 09 BIOMASS FUELS; bioenergy; cellulosic biomass; energy crops; investment analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; risk; stochastic budgeting

Citation Formats


                    Skevas, Theodoros, Swinton, Scott M., Tanner, Sophia, Sanford, Gregg, and Thelen, Kurt D. Investment risk in bioenergy crops.  United States: N. p., 2015. 
Web.  doi:10.1111/gcbb.12320.

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                    Skevas, Theodoros, Swinton, Scott M., Tanner, Sophia, Sanford, Gregg, & Thelen, Kurt D. Investment risk in bioenergy crops.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12320

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                    Skevas, Theodoros, Swinton, Scott M., Tanner, Sophia, Sanford, Gregg, and Thelen, Kurt D. Wed .  
"Investment risk in bioenergy crops".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12320.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1363930.

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@article{osti_1363930,

  title        = {Investment risk in bioenergy crops},

  author       = {Skevas, Theodoros and Swinton, Scott M. and Tanner, Sophia and Sanford, Gregg and Thelen, Kurt D.},

  abstractNote = {Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn (Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk into three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.},

  doi          = {10.1111/gcbb.12320},

  journal      = {Global Change Biology. Bioenergy},

  number       = 6,

  volume       = 8,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2015},

  month        = {Wed Nov 18 00:00:00 EST 2015}

}

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https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12320

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Works referencing / citing this record:

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Title: Investment risk in bioenergy crops

Abstract

Citation Formats

A Real Options Approach for the Investment Decisions of a Farm-Based Anaerobic Digester: REAL OPTIONS APPROACH TO INVESTMENT ANALYSIS journal, September 2013

The adoption of switchgrass and miscanthus by farmers: Impact of liquidity constraints and risk preferences journal, May 2010

A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water journal, February 2002

Production and Investment Decisions Under Sunk Cost and Temporal Uncertainty journal, February 1994

Organic and Conventional Production Systems in the Wisconsin Integrated Cropping Systems Trial: II. Economic and Risk Analysis 1993-2006 journal, March 2009

A stochastic analysis of the decision to produce biomass crops in Ireland journal, November 2012

Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Dominance Techniques Using Convex Set Stochastic Dominance journal, May 1985

A spatial model of climate change effects on yields and break-even prices of switchgrass and miscanthus in Ontario, Canada journal, May 2013

Advanced breakeven analysis of agricultural enterprise budgets journal, August 1993

More Productive Than Maize in the Midwest: How Does Miscanthus Do It? journal, June 2009

Rates of Return in the Farm and Nonfarm Sectors: How Do They Compare? journal, December 2004

Risk, uncertainty, and learning in adoption of a crop innovation journal, June 2005

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach journal, June 2004

Miscanthus for Renewable Energy Generation: European Union Experience and Projections for Illinois journal, October 2004

Meeting US biofuel goals with less land: the potential of Miscanthus journal, September 2008

An Axiomatic Approach to Measurable Utility journal, April 1953

An integrated biogeochemical and economic analysis of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States: BIOENERGY CROPS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES journal, September 2010

Stochastic Structure, farm size and Technology Adoption in Developing Agriculture journal, July 1983

Profitability of Cellulosic Biomass Production in the Northern Great Lakes Region journal, January 2014

Costs of producing miscanthus and switchgrass for bioenergy in Illinois journal, June 2008

Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy journal, December 2000

An Interval Approach to Measuring Decision Maker Preferences journal, August 1981

Technology Adoption under Production Uncertainty: Theory and Application to Irrigation Technology journal, August 2006

Comparative Breakeven Analysis of Annual Grain and Perennial Switchgrass Cropping Systems on Claypan Soil Landscapes journal, May 2012

The development and current status of perennial rhizomatous grasses as energy crops in the US and Europe journal, October 2003

The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve? journal, February 2003

Yield and Breakeven Price of ‘Alamo’ Switchgrass for Biofuels in Tennessee journal, January 2009

Impact of US Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Uncertain Climate Conditions journal, September 2014

Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach journal, January 2005

Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modeling journal, June 2000

The effect of climatic variations on agricultural risk journal, March 1985

Investment under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry journal, November 2000

On Testing the Structure of Risk Preferences in Agricultural Supply Analysis journal, August 1991

Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large journal, January 1964

Comparative productivity of alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central USA journal, January 2016

The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems journal, April 2014

Designing the emerging EU pesticide policy: A literature review journal, September 2013

Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility journal, April 2011

Uncertainty and investment in precision agriculture – Is it worth the money? journal, April 2009

A stochastic techno-economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S: A Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis of Shrub Willow Production Using EcoWillow 3.0S journal, June 2018

Diverse lignocellulosic feedstocks can achieve high field-scale ethanol yields while providing flexibility for the biorefinery and landscape-level environmental benefits journal, July 2018

Cellulosic biofuel contributions to a sustainable energy future: Choices and outcomes journal, June 2017

A Real Options Approach for the Investment Decisions of a Farm-Based Anaerobic Digester: REAL OPTIONS APPROACH TO INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
journal, September 2013

The adoption of switchgrass and miscanthus by farmers: Impact of liquidity constraints and risk preferences
journal, May 2010

A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water
journal, February 2002

Production and Investment Decisions Under Sunk Cost and Temporal Uncertainty
journal, February 1994

Organic and Conventional Production Systems in the Wisconsin Integrated Cropping Systems Trial: II. Economic and Risk Analysis 1993-2006
journal, March 2009

A stochastic analysis of the decision to produce biomass crops in Ireland
journal, November 2012

Improving the Efficiency of Stochastic Dominance Techniques Using Convex Set Stochastic Dominance
journal, May 1985

A spatial model of climate change effects on yields and break-even prices of switchgrass and miscanthus in Ontario, Canada
journal, May 2013

Advanced breakeven analysis of agricultural enterprise budgets
journal, August 1993

More Productive Than Maize in the Midwest: How Does Miscanthus Do It?
journal, June 2009

Rates of Return in the Farm and Nonfarm Sectors: How Do They Compare?
journal, December 2004

Risk, uncertainty, and learning in adoption of a crop innovation
journal, June 2005

Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: a simplified approach
journal, June 2004

Miscanthus for Renewable Energy Generation: European Union Experience and Projections for Illinois
journal, October 2004

Meeting US biofuel goals with less land: the potential of Miscanthus
journal, September 2008

An Axiomatic Approach to Measurable Utility
journal, April 1953

An integrated biogeochemical and economic analysis of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States: BIOENERGY CROPS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES
journal, September 2010

Stochastic Structure, farm size and Technology Adoption in Developing Agriculture
journal, July 1983

Profitability of Cellulosic Biomass Production in the Northern Great Lakes Region
journal, January 2014

Costs of producing miscanthus and switchgrass for bioenergy in Illinois
journal, June 2008

Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy
journal, December 2000

An Interval Approach to Measuring Decision Maker Preferences
journal, August 1981

Technology Adoption under Production Uncertainty: Theory and Application to Irrigation Technology
journal, August 2006

Comparative Breakeven Analysis of Annual Grain and Perennial Switchgrass Cropping Systems on Claypan Soil Landscapes
journal, May 2012

The development and current status of perennial rhizomatous grasses as energy crops in the US and Europe
journal, October 2003

The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve?
journal, February 2003

Yield and Breakeven Price of ‘Alamo’ Switchgrass for Biofuels in Tennessee
journal, January 2009

Impact of US Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Uncertain Climate Conditions
journal, September 2014

Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach
journal, January 2005

Are we risking too much? Perspectives on risk in farm modeling
journal, June 2000

The effect of climatic variations on agricultural risk
journal, March 1985

Investment under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry
journal, November 2000

On Testing the Structure of Risk Preferences in Agricultural Supply Analysis
journal, August 1991

Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large
journal, January 1964

Comparative productivity of alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central USA
journal, January 2016

The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems
journal, April 2014

Designing the emerging EU pesticide policy: A literature review
journal, September 2013

Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility
journal, April 2011

Uncertainty and investment in precision agriculture – Is it worth the money?
journal, April 2009

A stochastic techno-economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S: A Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis of Shrub Willow Production Using EcoWillow 3.0S
journal, June 2018

Diverse lignocellulosic feedstocks can achieve high field-scale ethanol yields while providing flexibility for the biorefinery and landscape-level environmental benefits
journal, July 2018

Cellulosic biofuel contributions to a sustainable energy future: Choices and outcomes
journal, June 2017