Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model
Abstract
Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear–1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear–1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
- Delft Univ. of Technology, Delft (The Netherlands)
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1352361
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-15-21974
Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climate Dynamics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 47; Journal Issue: 5-6; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
- Publisher:
- Springer-Verlag
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; computer science; planetary sciences; Antarctic; ice sheets; surface mass balance; climate modelling; sea level; climate change
Citation Formats
Lenaerts, Jan T. M., Vizcaino, Miren, Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson, van Kampenhout, Leo, and van den Broeke, Michiel R. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4.
Lenaerts, Jan T. M., Vizcaino, Miren, Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson, van Kampenhout, Leo, & van den Broeke, Michiel R. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4
Lenaerts, Jan T. M., Vizcaino, Miren, Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson, van Kampenhout, Leo, and van den Broeke, Michiel R. Mon .
"Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1352361.
@article{osti_1352361,
title = {Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model},
author = {Lenaerts, Jan T. M. and Vizcaino, Miren and Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson and van Kampenhout, Leo and van den Broeke, Michiel R.},
abstractNote = {Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear–1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear–1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-015-2907-4},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 5-6,
volume = 47,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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Measurements of precipitation in Dumont d'Urville, Adélie Land, East Antarctica
journal, January 2017
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Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica
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Basin-scale heterogeneity in Antarctic precipitation and its impact on surface mass variability
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Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)
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How does the ice sheet surface mass balance relate to snowfall? Insights from a ground-based precipitation radar in East Antarctica
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Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change
journal, January 2019
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Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model: impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance
journal, January 2019
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Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model
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Interannual variability of summer surface mass balance and surface melting in the Amundsen sector, West Antarctica
journal, January 2020
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Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model
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Antarctic surface hydrology and impacts on ice-sheet mass balance
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Assessing bias corrections of oceanic surface conditions for atmospheric models
journal, January 2019
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Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
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Observationally constrained surface mass balance of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica
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journal, December 2016
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Widespread distribution of supraglacial lakes around the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet
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Experimental tests of sub-surface reflectors as an explanation for the ANITA anomalous events
journal, April 2021
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Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
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Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016)
journal, January 2018
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Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model: impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance
journal, January 2019
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- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 6
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model
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How useful is snow accumulation in reconstructing surface air temperature in Antarctica? A study combining ice core records and climate models
journal, April 2020
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Spatial probabilistic calibration of a high-resolution Amundsen Sea Embayment ice sheet model with satellite altimeter data
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Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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