Title: An efficient parallel sampling technique for Multivariate Poisson-Lognormal model: Analysis with two crash count datasets

Abstract

Our study investigates the Multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) model that jointly models crash frequency and severity accounting for correlations. The ordinary univariate count models analyze crashes of different severity level separately ignoring the correlations among severity levels. The MVPLN model is capable to incorporate the general correlation structure and takes account of the over dispersion in the data that leads to a superior data fitting. But, the traditional estimation approach for MVPLN model is computationally expensive, which often limits the use of MVPLN model in practice. In this work, a parallel sampling scheme is introduced to improve the original Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation approach of the MVPLN model, which significantly reduces the model estimation time. Two MVPLN models are developed using the pedestrian vehicle crash data collected in New York City from 2002 to 2006, and the highway-injury data from Washington State (5-year data from 1990 to 1994) The Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) is used to evaluate the model fitting. The estimation results show that the MVPLN models provide a superior fit over univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN), univariate Poisson, and Negative Binomial models. Moreover, the correlations among the latent effects of different severity levels are found significant in both datasetsmore » that justifies the importance of jointly modeling crash frequency and severity accounting for correlations.« less

Authors:

Zhan, Xianyuan ^[1]; Aziz, H. M. Abdul ^[1]; Ukkusuri, Satish V. ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

Publication Date:

Thu Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2015

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1265895

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Analytic Methods in Accident Research

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2213-6657

Publisher:

Elsevier

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING; accident analysis; pedestrian crashes; severity models