Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

Pasha, M. Fayzul K.; Yeasmin, Dilruba; Saetern, Sen; Yang, Majntxov; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Smith, Brennan T.

doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000654

Title: Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment

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Abstract

Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head is within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.

Authors:

Pasha, M. Fayzul K. ^[1]; Yeasmin, Dilruba ^[1]; Saetern, Sen ^[1]; Yang, Majntxov ^[1]; Kao, Shih -Chieh ^[2]; Smith, Brennan T. ^[2]

California State Univ., Fresno, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed Mar 30 00:00:00 EDT 2016

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1261549

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management; Journal ID: ISSN 0733-9496

Publisher:: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 13 HYDRO ENERGY

Citation Formats


                    Pasha, M. Fayzul K., Yeasmin, Dilruba, Saetern, Sen, Yang, Majntxov, Kao, Shih -Chieh, and Smith, Brennan T. Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment.  United States: N. p., 2016. 
Web.  doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000654.

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                    Pasha, M. Fayzul K., Yeasmin, Dilruba, Saetern, Sen, Yang, Majntxov, Kao, Shih -Chieh, & Smith, Brennan T. Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000654

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                    Pasha, M. Fayzul K., Yeasmin, Dilruba, Saetern, Sen, Yang, Majntxov, Kao, Shih -Chieh, and Smith, Brennan T. Wed .  
"Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000654.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1261549.

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@article{osti_1261549,

  title        = {Uncertainty analysis in geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment},

  author       = {Pasha, M. Fayzul K. and Yeasmin, Dilruba and Saetern, Sen and Yang, Majntxov and Kao, Shih -Chieh and Smith, Brennan T.},

  abstractNote = {Hydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) Model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head is within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10% to 20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Furthermore, mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.},

  doi          = {10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000654},

  journal      = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed Mar 30 00:00:00 EDT 2016},

  month        = {Wed Mar 30 00:00:00 EDT 2016}

}

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