Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation

Yurko, Joseph P.; Buongiorno, Jacopo; Youngblood, Robert

doi:10.1155/2015/839249

Title: Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation

Abstract

System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the code and thereby improves its support for decision-making. The work reported here implements several improvements on classic calibration techniques afforded by modern analysis techniques. The key innovation has come from development of code surrogate model (or code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. Use of a fast emulator makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. This study uses Gaussian Process (GP) based emulators, which have been used previously to emulate computer codes in the nuclear field. The present work describes the formulation of an emulator that incorporates GPs into a factor analysis-type or pattern recognition-type model. This “function factorization” Gaussian Process (FFGP) model allows overcoming limitations present in standard GP emulators, thereby improving both accuracy and speed of the emulator-based calibration process. Calibration of a friction-factor example using a Method of Manufactured Solution is performed to illustrate key properties of the FFGP based process.

Authors:

Yurko, Joseph P. ^[1];

^[2]; Youngblood, Robert ^[3]

Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); FPoliSolutions, LLC, Murrysville, PA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Publication Date:: Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015

Research Org.:: Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1223307

Grant/Contract Number:: AC07-05ID14517

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 2015; Journal ID: ISSN 1687-6075

Publisher:: Hindawi

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS

Citation Formats


                    Yurko, Joseph P., Buongiorno, Jacopo, and Youngblood, Robert. Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation.  United States: N. p., 2015. 
Web.  doi:10.1155/2015/839249.

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                    Yurko, Joseph P., Buongiorno, Jacopo, & Youngblood, Robert. Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/839249

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                    Yurko, Joseph P., Buongiorno, Jacopo, and Youngblood, Robert. Thu .  
"Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/839249.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1223307.

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@article{osti_1223307,

  title        = {Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation},

  author       = {Yurko, Joseph P. and Buongiorno, Jacopo and Youngblood, Robert},

  abstractNote = {System codes for simulation of safety performance of nuclear plants may contain parameters whose values are not known very accurately. New information from tests or operating experience is incorporated into safety codes by a process known as calibration, which reduces uncertainty in the output of the code and thereby improves its support for decision-making. The work reported here implements several improvements on classic calibration techniques afforded by modern analysis techniques. The key innovation has come from development of code surrogate model (or code emulator) construction and prediction algorithms. Use of a fast emulator makes the calibration processes used here with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling feasible. This study uses Gaussian Process (GP) based emulators, which have been used previously to emulate computer codes in the nuclear field. The present work describes the formulation of an emulator that incorporates GPs into a factor analysis-type or pattern recognition-type model. This “function factorization” Gaussian Process (FFGP) model allows overcoming limitations present in standard GP emulators, thereby improving both accuracy and speed of the emulator-based calibration process. Calibration of a friction-factor example using a Method of Manufactured Solution is performed to illustrate key properties of the FFGP based process.},

  doi          = {10.1155/2015/839249},

  journal      = {Science and Technology of Nuclear Installations},

  number       = ,

  volume       = 2015,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015},

  month        = {Thu May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2015}

}

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Works referenced in this record:

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Gaussian Process–Based Inverse Uncertainty Quantification for TRACE Physical Model Parameters Using Steady-State PSBT Benchmark
journal, August 2018

Wang, Chen; Wu, Xu; Kozlowski, Tomasz
Nuclear Science and Engineering, Vol. 193, Issue 1-2
DOI: 10.1080/00295639.2018.1499279

Inverse uncertainty quantification using the modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process, Part 2: Application to TRACE
journal, August 2018

Wu, Xu; Kozlowski, Tomasz; Meidani, Hadi
Nuclear Engineering and Design, Vol. 335
DOI: 10.1016/j.nucengdes.2018.06.003

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Title: Demonstration of emulator-based Bayesian calibration of safety analysis codes: Theory and formulation

Abstract

Citation Formats

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Computer Model Calibration Using High-Dimensional Output journal, June 2008

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Quantifying reactor safety margins Part 5: Evaluation of scale-up capabilities of best estimate codes journal, May 1990

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