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  1. Long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability over America using the NSRDB version 3 (1998–2017)

    The study assesses the long-term spatial and temporal solar resource variability in America using the 20-year National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Specifically, the coefficient of variation (COV) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal (interannual and seasonal) variability. Further, both spatial and temporal long-term variability are analyzed using the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The temporal variability is found that, on average, the continental United States (CONUS) COV reaches up to 5% for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 10% for direct normal irradiance (DNI), and that the NSRDB domain's COV is roughly twice that of CONUS.more » For the seasonal variability analysis, the winter months are found to exhibit higher COV than the other seasons. In particular, December exhibits the highest variability, reaching on average 30% for DNI and 20% for GHI over various areas. On the other hand, the summer months demonstrate significantly lower variability, reaching only less than 20% for DNI and 10% for GHI, on average. Similarly, the spatial variability is analyzed by comparing each pixel to its neighbors. The long-term spatial variability is found to increase with the number of neighboring pixels being considered, which is equivalent to an increase in distance (within a 100-km x 100-km square grid). As expected, the DNI spatial variability is higher than that of GHI. Moreover, the annual solar irradiance anomalies are found to reach ±25% for both GHI and DNI (and even exceed those value in some instances) during each year of the 20-year period.« less
  2. Irradiance and temperature considerations in the design and deployment of high annual energy yield perovskite/CIGS tandems

    The annual energy yields for metal halide perovskite/copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) tandem photovoltaics have been calculated for 16 different bandgap combinations, using both 2 terminal and 4 terminal device designs, with fixed-tilt mounting as well as 1- and 2-axis tracking. Measured complex index of refraction data were used for the materials comprising the devices, and hourly irradiance data were extracted from Version 3 of the National Solar Radiation Database. Simulations were performed for Toledo OH, Golden CO, Phoenix AZ, and New Orleans LA, and the effect of local temperature variation was also considered. The combination of irradiance and temperaturemore » variations throughout the year cause different devices to be optimal at different times of the year. Interestingly, devices constructed to maximize AM1.5 photoconversion efficiency do not necessarily maximize the annual energy yield. A detailed analysis of the monthly energy yields at the different locations reveals the interplay between the changing light and temperature conditions. Over the course of the year these effects average to some degree so that annual energy yields that are close to the maximum possible value can be achieved by several different tandem device designs. The conclusions are valid for devices made with relatively thin perovskite layers, such as those used in champion efficiency devices. When the perovskite layers are thicker, however, the device is less tolerant to variation. Our results show that close matching of bandgap pairs is not essential for the fabrication of high-performance tandems. These findings should allow manufacturing efforts to proceed without the need for precise compositional control during formation of the absorber layers.« less
  3. Atmospheric Transmittance Model Validation for CSP Tower Plants

    In yield analysis and plant design of concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants, increased uncertainties are caused by the mostly unknown solar attenuation between the concentrating heliostat field and the receiver on top of the tower. This attenuation is caused mainly by aerosol particles and water vapor. Various on-site measurement methods of atmospheric extinction in solar tower plants have been developed during recent years, but during resource assessment for distinct tower plant projects in-situ measurement data sets are typically not available. To overcome this lack of information, a transmittance model (TM) has been previously developed and enhanced by the authorsmore » to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity and barometric pressure measurements. Previously the model was only tested at one site. In this manuscript, the enhanced TM is validated for three sites (CIEMAT’s Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA), Spain, Missour, Morocco (MIS) and Zagora, Morocco (ZAG)). As the strongest assumption in the TM is the vertical aerosol particle profile, three different approaches to describe the vertical profile are tested in the TM. One approach assumes a homogeneous aerosol profile up to 1 kilometer above ground, the second approach is based on LIVAS profiles obtained from Lidar measurements and the third approach uses boundary layer height (BLH) data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The derived broadband transmittance for a slant range of 1 km (T1$km$) time series is compared with a reference data set of on-site absorption- and broadband corrected T1$km$ derived from meteorological optical range (MOR) measurements for the temporal period between January 2015 and November 2017. The absolute mean bias error (MBE) for the TM’s T1$km$ using the three different aerosol profiles lies below 5% except for ZAG and one profile assumption. The MBE is close to 0 for PSA and MIS assuming a homogeneous extinction coefficient up to 1 km above ground. The root mean square error (RMSE) is around 5–6% for PSA and ZAG and around 7–8% for MIS. The TM performs better during summer months, during which more data points have been evaluated. This validation proves the applicability of the transmittance model for resource assessment at various sites. It enables the identification of a clear site with high T1$km$ with a high accuracy and provides an estimation of the T1$km$ for hazy sites. Thus it facilitates the decision if on-site extinction measurements are necessary. The model can be used to improve the accuracy of yield analysis of tower plants and allows the site adapted design.« less
  4. A Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT): Part II. The cloudy-sky model

    The Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT) reported in Part I of this report is enhanced to include the requirements for cloudy-sky conditions. Surface radiances in 2002 narrow-wavelength bands from 0.28 to 4.0 um are analytically computed by solving the radiative transfer equation for five independent photon paths accounting for clear-sky absorption, Rayleigh scattering, and cloud absorption and scattering. The Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS) is used to show the optical thickness of the clear-sky atmosphere. Unlike Part I, which approximates the computation of aerosol scattering usingmore » the single-scattering phase function, the cloud transmittance and reflectance are efficiently retrieved from a comprehensive look-up table pre-computed by a 32-stream DIScrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer (DISORT) model for possible cloud conditions as well as solar and viewing geometries. A resolution assessment is performed to observe the optimal balance between the computational efficiency and accuracy in the development of the look-up table. Model simulations by DISORT and TMYSPEC are used to evaluate the performance of FARMS-NIT under cloudy-sky conditions. Compared to DISORT, FARMS-NIT yields 2-3% uncertainties on average, but it substantially reduces the computational time because of the independent computation of cloud properties and the implementation of the look-up table. In contrast to TMYSPEC, which uses successive steps to empirically compute plane-of-array (POA) irradiances and spectral irradiances, FARMS-NIT directly solves spectral radiances from the radiative transfer equation, which profoundly increases the accuracy in surface irradiances, especially over inclined photovoltaics (PV) panels.« less
  5. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

    In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, wemore » assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching and increased operational reserve requirements. Future research should aggregate component-level impacts at operational timescales, quantify impacts on wind and solar variability, and contextualize climate change impacts within ongoing shifts in the electric power system.« less
  6. Estimating Ultraviolet Radiation From Global Horizontal Irradiance

    Terrestrial ultraviolet radiation (UV) radiation is a primary factor contributing to the degradation of photovoltaic (PV) modules' efficiency and reliability over time. Therefore, accurate knowledge of terrestrial UV incident on the surface of the PV materials is essential to understand the degradation of PV modules and provide reliable assessment of their service life. As PV is deployed in various climate zones, it is crucial that terrestrial UV information is available at various locations. However, the availability of terrestrial UV data - measured or modeled - is extremely limited. On the other hand, total solar irradiance (TS) datasets are relatively abundant.more » In this study, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, its industry partners, and ASTM's International Subcommittee on Radiometry and Service Life Prediction are developing a simple method to estimate the clear-sky terrestrial UV irradiance (280-400 nm, 295-400 nm, 285-385 nm, or 295-385 nm) from total irradiance data (280-4000 nm). The goal is to provide reliable estimates of the UV received by samples as a function of location, orientation, tilt, and airmass, thus encompassing a variety of conditions. Here, the Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS) model is used to estimate the UV:TS ratio under various scenarios, and examines the influences of atmospheric constituents, such as aerosols, precipitable water vapor or ozone, and of the local surface characteristics (albedo), on the predicted UV.« less
  7. A Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT): Part I. The clear-sky model

    The solar energy industry often uses individual steps to empirically compute plane-of-array (POA) irradiance from horizontal irradiance and decompose it to narrow-wavelength bands. Conventional radiative transfer models designed for meteorological applications requires significant computing efforts in practice; however, they provide a physics-based solution of radiance and therefore are capable of computing spectral POA irradiances in a single step. In this study, we integrate the advantages of the current models and develop an innovative radiative transfer model, the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), to efficiently compute irradiances on inclined photovoltaics (PV) panelsmore » for 2002 narrow-wavelength bands from 0.28 to 4.0 um. This study is reported in two parts. Part I presents the methodology and performance evaluation of the new model under clear-sky conditions. The Simple Model of the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer of Sunshine (SMARTS), which was designed to compute clear-sky irradiances, is employed to rapidly provide the optical properties of a given clear-sky atmosphere. The clear-sky radiances in the narrow-wavelength bands are computed by considering three paths of photon transmission and solving the radiative transfer equation with the single-scattering approximation. The Bi-directional Transmittance Distribution Function (BTDF) of aerosols is given by their single-scattering phase function with a correction using a two-stream approximation. The validation analysis confirms that FARMS-NIT has improved accuracy compared to TMYSPEC as evaluated by both surface observations and a state-of-the-art radiative transfer model. This model substantially improves computational efficiency compared to other radiative transfer models though it uses slightly more computing time than TMYSPEC. Part II of this study addresses the model in cloud-sky conditions and will be published as a companion paper.« less
  8. Assessment of uncertainty in the numerical simulation of solar irradiance over inclined PV panels: New algorithms using measurements and modeling tools

    Development of accurate transposition models to simulate plane-of-array (POA) irradiance from horizontal measurements or simulations is a complex process mainly because of the anisotropic distribution of diffuse solar radiation in the atmosphere. The limited availability of reliable POA measurements at large temporal and spatial scales leads to difficulties in the comprehensive evaluation of transposition models. This paper proposes new algorithms to assess the uncertainty of transposition models using both surface-based observations and modeling tools. We reviewed the analytical derivation of POA irradiance and the approximation of isotropic diffuse radiation that simplifies the computation. Two transposition models are evaluated against themore » computation by the rigorous analytical solution. We proposed a new algorithm to evaluate transposition models using the clear-sky measurements at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) and a radiative transfer model that integrates diffuse radiances of various sky-viewing angles. We found that the radiative transfer model and a transposition model based on empirical regressions are superior to the isotropic models when compared to measurements. We further compared the radiative transfer model to the transposition models under an extensive range of idealized conditions. Our results suggest that the empirical transposition model has slightly higher cloudy-sky POA irradiance than the radiative transfer model, but performs better than the isotropic models under clear-sky conditions. Significantly smaller POA irradiances computed by the transposition models are observed when the photovoltaics (PV) panel deviates from the azimuthal direction of the sun. The new algorithms developed in the current study have opened the door to a more comprehensive evaluation of transposition models for various atmospheric conditions and solar and PV orientations.« less

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