Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Mercurio, Tyler J.; Patricola, Christina M.

doi:10.1029/2024gl113126

Title: Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Journal Article · 05 March 2025 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl113126 · OSTI ID:2553920

Mercurio, Tyler J. ^[1];

^[2]

Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2553920

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 52; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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