Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Li, Jun; Zhang, Yao; Bevacqua, Emanuele; Zscheischler, Jakob; Keenan, Trevor F.; Lian, Xu; Zhou, Sha; Zhang, Hongying; He, Mingzhu; Piao, Shilong

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0

Title: Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Journal Article · 30 December 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55175-0 · OSTI ID:2530316

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^[5]; Zhang, Hongying ^[1]; He, Mingzhu ^[6];

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Peking University, Beijing (China)
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig (Germany)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)
Beijing Normal University, Beijing (China)
Peking University, Beijing (China); Beijing Normal University, Beijing (China)

Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12-21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO₂. Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); Helmholtz Association; German Research Foundation (DFG)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0021023

OSTI ID:: 2530316

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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