Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Motlaghzadeh, Kasra; Craik, Neil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Schweizer, Vanessa; Fuhrman, Jay G.; Hipel, Keith W.

doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02080-z

Title: Applying equity principles leads to higher carbon removal obligations in Canada

Journal Article · 07 February 2025 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02080-z · OSTI ID:2514361

^[1];

^[2]; Hipel, Keith W. ^[3]

Univ. of Waterloo, ON (Canada)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Waterloo, ON (Canada); Balsillie School of International Affairs, Waterloo (Canada)

Despite net-zero pledges, consensus on national responsibilities for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies is lacking. Here, we use integrated assessment modeling to examine equity-informed estimates of Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, exploring CDR’s role at net-zero and beyond. Gigaton-scale CDR efforts post-2050 are needed to address Canada’s carbon debt under various burden-sharing principles. Cumulative negative emissions (2050-2100) could increase from 7.5 GtCO₂ in the Net-Zero scenario to 20.3 GtCO₂ in equity-informed scenarios. By 2100, a CDR portfolio, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to ~500 MtCO₂/year of removals. The projected average CDR growth rates, 2.8%-16%/year, align with the historical adoption rates of ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, underscoring the importance of drawing lessons from past successes. Socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis highlights that, despite variations in the role of individual CDR technologies, CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2514361

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT-SA--10894

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 6; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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