Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4];
[4]
- Univ. of the Basque Country (Spain); Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain)
- Univ. of the Basque Country (Spain); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Univ. of the Basque Country (Spain)
Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO2.yr-1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO2.yr-1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO2.yr-1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO2.yr-1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 2513449
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA--201362
- Journal Information:
- Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 19; ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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