Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

Falvo, Grant; Zhang, Yao; Abraha, Michael; Mosier, Samantha; Su, Yahn‐Jauh; Lei, Cheyenne; Chen, Jiquan; Cotrufo, M. Francesca; Robertson, G. Philip

doi:10.1111/gcbb.70023

Title: Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

Journal Article · 06 February 2025 · Global Change Biology. Bioenergy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.70023 · OSTI ID:2512430

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Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA, Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center East Lansing Michigan USA
Department of Soil and Crop Sciences Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Fort Collins Colorado USA
Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center East Lansing Michigan USA, Department of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
School of Environment and Sustainability University of Michigan Ann Arbor Michigan USA

ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N ₂ O and CH ₄ fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m ⁻² over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m ⁻² . However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m ⁻² , due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NONE; SC0018409

OSTI ID:: 2512430

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy, Journal Name: Global Change Biology. Bioenergy Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 17; ISSN 1757-1693

Publisher:: Wiley-BlackwellCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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