Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Aalto, Tuula; Tsuruta, Aki; Mäkelä, Jarmo; Müller, Jurek; Tenkanen, Maria; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah; Gao, Yao; Mannisenaho, Vilma; Kleinen, Thomas; Lee, Hanna; Leppänen, Antti; Markkanen, Tiina; Materia, Stefano; Miller, Paul A.; Peano, Daniele; Peltola, Olli; Poulter, Benjamin; Raivonen, Maarit; Saunois, Marielle; Wårlind, David; Zaehle, Sönke

doi:10.5194/bg-22-323-2025

Title: Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Journal Article · 15 January 2025 · Biogeosciences (Online)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-323-2025 · OSTI ID:2506135

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Finnish Meteorological Inst. (FMI), Helsinki (Finland)
CSC Centre of Scientific Computing, Espoo (Finland)
Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway)
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy)
Lund Univ. (Sweden)
Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki (Finland)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Univ. of Helsinki (Finland)
Université Paris-Saclay (France); Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA) (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) (France)
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Contributing Organization:: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2506135

Journal Information:: Biogeosciences (Online), Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 22; ISSN 1726-4189

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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