Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

Sun, Yong; Ramstein, Gilles; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Ding, Lin; Liu, Bo

doi:10.1093/nsr/nwae375

Title: Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

Journal Article · 21 October 2024 · National Science Review

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae375 · OSTI ID:2496765

;

; Fedorov, Alexey V.;

; Liu, Bo

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2496765

Journal Information:: National Science Review, Journal Name: National Science Review Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2095-5138

Publisher:: Oxford University PressCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: China

Language:: English

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