Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Liu, Xue; Saravanan, Ramalingam; Chang, Ping; Fu, Dan; Xie, Le

doi:10.1029/2024GL109416

Title: Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Journal Article · 11 December 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109416 · OSTI ID:2481370

^[1]; Saravanan, Ramalingam ^[2];

^[3];

^[1]; Xie, Le ^[4]

Department of Oceanography Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA
Department of Oceanography Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA, Texas A&,M Energy Institute College Station TX USA

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0020072

OSTI ID:: 2481370

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 24 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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