Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend
[1];
[3]
- Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington Seattle WA USA
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University Ithaca NY USA, Northeast Regional Climate Center Cornell University Ithaca NY USA
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University Ithaca NY USA, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Polar Bears International Bozeman MT USA
Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0022070
- OSTI ID:
- 2480739
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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