Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate

Lipari, Serena Joy; Balaguru, Karthik; Rice, Julian R.; Feng, Sha; Xu, Wenwei; K. Berg, Larry; Judi, David R.

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6

Title: Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate

Journal Article · 08 December 2024 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6 · OSTI ID:2480578

^[1];

^[1]; Xu, Wenwei ^[1];

^[1]; Judi, David R. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for offshore wind energy development. Assessing the impact of projected climate change on tropical cyclones, and consequently on offshore wind resources, is thus critical for effective risk management. Herein, we investigate the evolving risk to offshore wind turbines posed by Atlantic tropical cyclones in a non-stationary climate using a synthetic tropical cyclone model. Integrated with climate model simulations, projections show widespread increases in tropical cyclone exposure, with historical 20-year storms occurring every ~12.7 years on average, increasing in intensity by about 9.3 ms^-1. Subsequent fragility analysis reveals that the probabilities of turbine yielding and buckling from a 20-year tropical cyclone could increase by about 37% and 13%, respectively, with regional increases reaching up to 51%. These findings carry substantial implications for the operation and future expansion of offshore wind farms.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2480578

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--198107

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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