A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Zhang, Wei; Wang, Simon S-Y; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Gillies, Robert; LaPlante, Matthew; Hari, Vittal

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad928f

Title: A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Journal Article · 06 December 2024 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad928f · OSTI ID:2479965

;

; Gillies, Robert; LaPlante, Matthew;

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 2479965

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 20; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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