Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Journal Article · 05 December 2024 · Energies

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en17236127 · OSTI ID:2479924

Xiao, Jingyi; Goulias, Konstadinos G.; Ravulaparthy, Srinath; Sharda, Shivam ; Jin, Ling; Spurlock, C. Anna

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 2479924
• Report Number(s): NREL/JA--5400-92605; PII: en17236127
• Journal Information: Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 17; ISSN 1996-1073; ISSN ENERGA
• Publisher: MDPI AGCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: Switzerland
• Language: English