Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

Kooloth, Parvathi; Lu, Jian; Bakker, Craig; DeSantis, Derek; Rupe, Adam

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1

Title: Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

Journal Article · 25 November 2024 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00768-1 · OSTI ID:2478884

^[1];

^[1]; Bakker, Craig ^[1]; DeSantis, Derek ^[2]; Rupe, Adam ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2478884

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--24-22746; PNNL-SA--195213

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

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