Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Guo, Jianing; Xie, Xiaoning; Myhre, Gunnar; Shindell, Drew; Kirkevåg, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Samset, Bjørn H.; Shi, Zhengguo; Li, Xinzhou; Sun, Hui; Liu, Xiaodong; Liu, Yangang

doi:10.1029/2024ef004745

Title: Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Journal Article · 15 November 2024 · Earth's Future

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004745 · OSTI ID:2478430

Guo, Jianing ^[1];

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^[4]; Kirkevåg, Alf ^[5];

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Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Xi'an (China). State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Xi'an (China). State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG); Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Xi'an (China).Center for Excellence in Quaternary Science and Global Change
Center for International Climate Research (CICERO), Oslo (Norway)
Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Xi'an (China). State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG); Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an (China). Institute of Global Environmental Change
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Xi'an (China). State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology (SKLLQG)
Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

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Research Organization:: Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Key R&D Program of China; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012704

OSTI ID:: 2478430

Report Number(s):: BNL--226361-2024-JAAM

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 12; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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