Observation-Based Evaluation of Flood Estimation Techniques for a Small Snow-Dominated Basin in the Washington Cascade Mountains

Yan, Hongxiang; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Sun, Ning; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Kruyt, Bert; Arnold, Jeffrey R.

doi:10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-6147

Title: Observation-Based Evaluation of Flood Estimation Techniques for a Small Snow-Dominated Basin in the Washington Cascade Mountains

Journal Article · 27 March 2024 · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-6147 · OSTI ID:2477609

^[1]; Duan, Zhuoran ^[1]; Wigmosta, Mark S. ^[1];

^[1]; Gutmann, Ethan D. ^[2]; Kruyt, Bert ^[2]; Arnold, Jeffrey R. ^[3]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA (United States)

Here, this study examines the application of the recently developed next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves in hydrological design, focusing on a small snow-dominated basin in Washington state. Four methods are used to assess the NG-IDF performance: (1) basin outlet flood frequency analysis, (2) use of standard precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves following surface water design manuals typically used in the basin, (3) utilization of locally constructed PREC-IDF curves, and (4) use of locally constructed NG-IDF curves. The standard PREC-IDF design method assumes precipitation as rainfall and neglecting snowmelt or rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can lead to significant flood underestimations in the test basin. In contrast, the NG-IDF method incorporates snow processes and shows promising improvements in accurately estimating design floods. The validation analysis demonstrates the superiority of NG-IDF over standard and local PREC-IDF in this test basin. The study highlights the necessity for adjustments in current design manuals to ensure sufficient flood protection, particularly in light of the planned substantial investments in US infrastructure.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOD; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2477609

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--189770

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 29; ISSN 1084-0699

Publisher:: American Society of Civil EngineersCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (40)

Large snowmelt versus rainfall events in the mountains: Big Mountain Snowmelt vs Rainfall Events Fassnacht, Steven R.; Records, Rosemary M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022753	journal	March 2015
A unified approach for process‐based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept Clark, Martyn P.; Nijssen, Bart; Lundquist, Jessica D. Water Resources Research, Vol. 51, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017198	journal	April 2015
Yosemite Hydroclimate Network: Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings: YOSEMITE HYDROCLIMATE NETWORK Lundquist, Jessica D.; Roche, James W.; Forrester, Harrison Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019261	journal	September 2016
Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021290	journal	February 2018
Evaluating next‐generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow‐dominated western United States Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark Hydrological Processes, Vol. 34, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13673	journal	December 2019
Characterizing Uncertainty of the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change Clark, Martyn P.; Wilby, Robert L.; Gutmann, Ethan D. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0034-x	journal	April 2016
Selection of regional historical rainfall time series as input to urban drainage simulations at ungauged locations Mikkelsen, P. S.; Madsen, H.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 77, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.10.016	journal	September 2005
A new generation of the United States National Land Cover Database: Requirements, research priorities, design, and implementation strategies Yang, Limin; Jin, Suming; Danielson, Patrick ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 146 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2018.09.006	journal	December 2018
Runoff models and flood frequency statistics for design flood estimation in Austria – Do they tell a consistent story? Rogger, M.; Kohl, B.; Pirkl, H. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 456-457 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.068	journal	August 2012
Incorporating non-stationarity from climate change into rainfall frequency and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves Schlef, Katherine E.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Brown, Casey Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 616 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128757	journal	January 2023
Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments Hosking, J. R. M.; Wallis, James R. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511529443	book	January 2009
Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R. Water Resources Research, Vol. 37, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR900016	journal	June 2001
Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation: THE ROLE OF ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IN DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 48, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR010997	journal	June 2012
Observed Spatiotemporal Changes in the Mechanisms of Extreme Water Available for Runoff in the Western United States Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080260	journal	January 2019
Regional Snow Parameters Estimation for Large‐Domain Hydrological Applications in the Western United States Sun, Ning; Yan, Hongxiang; Wigmosta, Mark S. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD030140	journal	May 2019
New Observed Data Sets for the Validation of Hydrology and Land Surface Models in Cold Climates Hamlet, Alan F. Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023123	journal	August 2018
U.S. Hydrologic Design Standards Insufficient Due to Large Increases in Frequency of Rainfall Extremes Wright, Daniel B.; Bosma, Christopher D.; Lopez‐Cantu, Tania Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083235	journal	July 2019
Changing Arctic River Dynamics Cause Localized Permafrost Thaw Zheng, Lei; Overeem, Irina; Wang, Kang Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 124, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005060	journal	September 2019
The Role of Rain‐on‐Snow in Flooding Over the Conterminous United States Li, Dongyue; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Margulis, Steven A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR024950	journal	November 2019
Extreme Value Snow Water Equivalent and Snowmelt for Infrastructure Design Over the Contiguous United States Cho, Eunsang; Jacobs, Jennifer M. Water Resources Research, Vol. 56, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028126	journal	September 2020
Forest Canopy Density Effects on Snowpack Across the Climate Gradients of the Western United States Mountain Ranges Sun, Ning; Yan, Hongxiang; Wigmosta, Mark S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 58, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029194	journal	January 2022
The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S. Water Resources Research, Vol. 59, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR034496	journal	October 2023
A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain Wigmosta, Mark S.; Vail, Lance W.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Water Resources Research, Vol. 30, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/94WR00436	journal	June 1994
Slower snowmelt in a warmer world Musselman, Keith N.; Clark, Martyn P.; Liu, Changhai Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3225	journal	February 2017
Steeper temporal distribution of rain intensity at higher temperatures within Australian storms Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2456	journal	June 2015
Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America Musselman, Keith N.; Lehner, Flavio; Ikeda, Kyoko Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0236-4	journal	August 2018
Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States Chen, Xiaodong; Leung, L. Ruby; Gao, Yang Nature Climate Change, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01578-0	journal	January 2023
Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States Sun, Ning; Yan, Hongxiang; Wigmosta, Mark S. Scientific Data, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01221-9	journal	April 2022
Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design in a Changing Climate Cheng, Linyin; AghaKouchak, Amir Scientific Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep07093	journal	November 2014
Revisiting the Concepts of Return Period and Risk for Nonstationary Hydrologic Extreme Events Salas, Jose D.; Obeysekera, Jayantha Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 19, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000820	journal	March 2014
Concepts of Information Content and Likelihood in Parameter Calibration for Hydrological Simulation Models Beven, Keith; Smith, Paul Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000991	journal	January 2015
Next-Generation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves to Reduce Errors in Peak Flood Design Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 24, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001799	journal	July 2019
Hydrologic Conservatism as a Rationale for Selecting NRCS Initial Abstraction Ratio Lasco, Jonathan David D.; Moglen, Glenn E. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 28, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6016	journal	December 2023
Development of an NRCS curve number global dataset using the latest geospatial remote sensing data for worldwide hydrologic applications Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Hong, Yang Remote Sensing Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2017.1297544	journal	February 2017
Mechanistic Simulations Suggest Riparian Restoration Can Partly Counteract Climate Impacts to Juvenile Salmon Fullerton, Aimee H.; Sun, Ning; Baerwalde, Matthew J. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.13011	journal	June 2022
Precipitation Extremes: Trends and Relationships with Average Precipitation and Precipitable Water in the Contiguous United States Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Karl, Thomas R.; Squires, Michael F. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 59, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0185.1	journal	January 2020
Incorporating Climate Nonstationarity and Snowmelt Processes in Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analyses with Case Studies in Mountainous Areas Hou, Zhangshuan; Ren, Huiying; Sun, Ning Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 20, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-19-0055.1	journal	December 2019
Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Design: Advances and Opportunities Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Chen, Xiaodong Frontiers in Water, Vol. 2 https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.545051	journal	December 2020
On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods Viglione, A.; Merz, R.; Blöschl, G. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-577-2009	journal	May 2009
Increase in flood risk resulting from climate change in a developed urban watershed – the role of storm temporal patterns Hettiarachchi, Suresh; Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2041-2018	journal	January 2018

Similar Records

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Journal Article · 2023 · Water Resources Research · OSTI ID:2203310

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.; +4 more

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Journal Article · 2019 · Hydrological Processes · OSTI ID:1600720

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.; +4 more

Next-Generation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves to Reduce Errors in Peak Flood Design

Journal Article · 2019 · Journal of Hydrologic Engineering · OSTI ID:1530831

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.; +3 more

Related Subjects

13 HYDRO ENERGY
42 ENGINEERING
Extreme flood
Hydrological design
Next-generation intensity-duration-frequency (NG-IDF) curves
Rain-on-snow (ROS)
Snowmelt

Title: Observation-Based Evaluation of Flood Estimation Techniques for a Small Snow-Dominated Basin in the Washington Cascade Mountains

Citation Formats

References (40)

Similar Records

Related Subjects