Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Acosta, R. P.; Burls, N. J.; Pound, M. J.; Bradshaw, C. D.; McCoy, J.; Gibson, M.; O’Keefe, J. M. K.; Feakins, S. J.

doi:10.1029/2024GL109499

Title: Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Journal Article · 07 November 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109499 · OSTI ID:2476548

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Department of Atmospheric Ocean and Earth Sciences Center for Ocean‐Land Atmosphere Studies George Mason University Fairfax VA USA
Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences Northumbria University Newcastle UK
The Global Systems Institute University of Exeter Exeter UK, Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
PetroStrat Ltd Conwy UK
Department of Engineering Sciences Morehead State University Morehead KY USA
Department of Earth Science University of Southern California Los Angeles CA USA

Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO ₂ concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2476548

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 21 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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