Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Park, Chae Yeon; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Jansakoo, Thanapat; Burton, Chantelle; Huang, Huilin; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Mengel, Matthias; Burke, Eleanor; Li, Fang; Hantson, Stijn; Takakura, Junya; Lee, Dong Kun; Hasegawa, Tomoko

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1

Title: Attributing human mortality from fire PM_2.5 to climate change

Journal Article · 21 October 2024 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1 · OSTI ID:2476245

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National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá (Colombia)
Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of)
Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu (Japan)

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here, in this study, we used three well-tested fire-vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46401 (1960s) –to 98748 (2010s) annual fire PM_2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) –to 12566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia, and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity, and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, like South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ERTDF); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2476245

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--202627

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 14; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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