Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Journal Article · 21 October 2024 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w · OSTI ID:2476244

Burton, Chantelle  ^[1]; Lampe, Seppe  ^[2]; Kelley, Douglas I.  ^[3]; Thiery, Wim  ^[2]; Hantson, Stijn  ^[4]; Christidis, Nikos  ^[1]; Gudmundsson, Lukas  ^[5]; Forrest, Matthew  ^[6]; Burke, Eleanor  ^[1]; Chang, Jinfeng  ^[7]; Huang, Huilin ^[8]; Ito, Akihiko  ^[9]; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian  ^[10]; Lasslop, Gitta ^[6]; Li, Wei  ^[11]; Nieradzik, Lars  ^[12]; Li, Fang  ^[13]; Chen, Yang  ^[14]; Randerson, James  ^[14]; Reyer, Christopher P. O.  ^[15] ; Mengel, Matthias  ^[15]

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1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
2. Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels (Belgium)
3. UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)
4. University of the Rosary (Colombia)
5. Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule (ETH), Zurich (Switzerland)
6. Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt (Germany)
7. Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou (China)
8. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
9. National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
10. Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)
11. Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
12. Lund Univ. (Sweden)
13. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
14. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
15. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 2476244
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--189368
• Journal Information: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 14; ISSN 1758-678X
• Publisher: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English