Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems
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- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks Juneau Alaska USA
- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks Juneau Alaska USA; Alaska Center for Conservation Science University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska USA; BLM Alaska Anchorage Alaska USA
- International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska USA
- Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada Sidney British Columbia Canada
- Columbia River Inter‐Tribal Fish Commission Portland Oregon USA
- Fisheries and Oceans Canada Whitehorse Yukon Canada
- Alaska Department of Fish and Game Anchorage Alaska USA
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center Anchorage Alaska USA
Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)
- OSTI ID:
- 2473151
- Journal Information:
- Global Change Biology, Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 30; ISSN 1354-1013
- Publisher:
- WileyCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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