Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Lubis, Sandro W.; Chen, Ziming; Lu, Jian; Hagos, Samson; Chang, Chuan-Chieh; Leung, L. Ruby

doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00766-3

Title: Enhanced Pacific Northwest heat extremes and wildfire risks induced by the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Journal Article · 03 October 2024 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00766-3 · OSTI ID:2472863

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

The occurrence of extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the Pacific Northwest region of North America (PNW) has been known to be influenced by climate modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other variations in tropospheric circulation such as stationary waves and blocking. However, the extent to which the subseasonal remote tropical driver influences summer heat extremes and fire weather conditions across the PNW remains elusive. Our investigation reveals that the occurrence of heat extremes and associated fire-conducive weather conditions in the PNW is significantly heightened during the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) phases 6-7, by ~50–120% relative to the seasonal probability. The promotion of these heat extremes is primarily attributed to the enhanced diabatic heating over the tropical central-to-eastern North Pacific, which generates a wave train traveling downstream toward North America, resulting in a prominent high-pressure system over the PNW. The ridge, subsequently, promotes surface warming over the region primarily through increased surface radiative heating and enhanced adiabatic warming. The results suggest a potential pathway to improving subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions of heatwaves and wildfire risks in the PNW by improving the representation of BSISO heating over the tropical-to-eastern North Pacific.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2472863

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--195879

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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