Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples

Eslinger, Paul W.; Milbrath, Brian D.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107544

Title: Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples

Journal Article · 19 September 2024 · Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107544 · OSTI ID:2472798

^[1]; Milbrath, Brian D. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Algorithms that estimate the location, time, and magnitude of a point-source atmospheric release using remotely sampled air concentrations typically use data for a single chemical or radioactive isotope. Here, a Bayesian algorithm is presented that uses data from multiple radioactive isotopes that are all released in the same short-duration event. Data from noble gas and aerosol samplers can be used simultaneously in the model. Application to a large synthetic data set using four isotopes shows the new algorithm generally gives more accurate location and time estimates than a comparable model using a single isotope.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2472798

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--200262

Journal Information:: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Journal Name: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity Vol. 280; ISSN 0265-931X

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (46)

Uncertainties in air quality model predictions Hanna, S. R. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 62, Issue 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00705545	journal	January 1993
A description of the DOE Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler/Analyzer for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Miley, H. S.; Bowyer, S. M.; Hubbard, C. W. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, Vol. 235, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02385942	journal	September 1998
Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Radioiodine Isotopic Activity Ratios Kalinowski, Martin B.; Liao, Yen-Yo; Pistner, Christoph Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 171, Issue 3-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0564-7	journal	August 2012
Isotopic Characterization of Radioiodine and Radioxenon in Releases from Underground Nuclear Explosions with Various Degrees of Fractionation Kalinowski, Martin B.; Liao, Yen-Yo Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 171, Issue 3-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0580-7	journal	September 2012
Measurements of radioxenon in ground level air in South Korea following the claimed nuclear test in North Korea on October 9, 2006 Ringbom, A.; Elmgren, Klas; Lindh, Karin Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, Vol. 282, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-009-0271-8	journal	July 2009
Multi-detection events, probability density functions, and reduced location area Eslinger, Paul W.; Schrom, Brian T. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, Vol. 307, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-015-4339-3	journal	July 2015
Capabilities of an on-site inspection Miley, Harry S.; Haas, Derek A. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, Vol. 307, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-016-4708-6	journal	January 2016
Iodine concentration and availability in atmospheric aerosol Baker, A. R.; Thompson, D.; Campos, M. L. A. M. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 34, Issue 25 https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00208-9	journal	July 2000
Methodology for the investigation of undeclared atmospheric releases of radionuclides: Application to recent radionuclide detections in Northern Europe from 2019 to 2022 Saunier, O.; Ingremeau, J. J.; Hoffman, Ian Annals of Nuclear Energy, Vol. 192 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2023.109907	journal	November 2023
Bayesian inference for source determination with applications to a complex urban environment Keats, Andrew; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 41, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.08.044	journal	January 2007
Source estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion Shankar Rao, K. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 41, Issue 33 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.064	journal	October 2007
Evaluation of Bayesian source estimation methods with Prairie Grass observations and Gaussian plume model: A comparison of likelihood functions and distance measures Wang, Yan; Huang, Hong; Huang, Lida Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 152 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.01.014	journal	March 2017
Paradigms and commonalities in atmospheric source term estimation methods Bieringer, Paul E.; Young, George S.; Rodriguez, Luna M. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 156 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.02.011	journal	May 2017
Review: Untangling the influence of air-mass history in interpreting observed atmospheric composition Fleming, Zoë L.; Monks, Paul S.; Manning, Alistair J. Atmospheric Research, Vol. 104-105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.09.009	journal	February 2012
A review of source term estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion events using static or mobile sensors Hutchinson, Michael; Oh, Hyondong; Chen, Wen-Hua Information Fusion, Vol. 36 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2016.11.010	journal	July 2017
Radioxenon detections in the CTBT international monitoring system likely related to the announced nuclear test in North Korea on February 12, 2013 Ringbom, A.; Axelsson, A.; Aldener, M. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 128 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2013.10.027	journal	February 2014
Representative doses to members of the public from atmospheric releases of 131I at the Mayak Production Association facilities from 1948 through 1972 Eslinger, Paul W.; Napier, Bruce A.; Anspaugh, Lynn R. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 135 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.04.003	journal	September 2014
Estimates of radioxenon released from Southern Hemisphere medical isotope production facilities using measured air concentrations and atmospheric transport modeling Eslinger, Paul W.; Friese, Judah I.; Lowrey, Justin D. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 135 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2014.04.006	journal	September 2014
Atmospheric plume progression as a function of time and distance from the release point for radioactive isotopes Eslinger, Paul W.; Bowyer, Ted W.; Cameron, Ian M. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 148 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.06.022	journal	October 2015
Radionuclide observables during the Integrated Field Exercise of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Burnett, Jonathan L.; Miley, Harry S.; Milbrath, Brian D. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 153 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2016.01.002	journal	March 2016
Calculations of individual doses for Techa River Cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from Mayak releases Napier, Bruce A.; Eslinger, Paul W.; Tolstykh, Evgenia I. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 178-179 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2017.08.013	journal	November 2017
Utility of atmospheric transport runs done backwards in time for source term estimation Eslinger, Paul W.; Schrom, Brian T. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 203 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2019.03.006	journal	July 2019
Source term estimation using multiple xenon isotopes in atmospheric samples Eslinger, Paul W.; Lowrey, Justin D.; Miley, Harry S. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 204 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2019.04.004	journal	August 2019
An episode of Ru-106 in air over Europe, September–October 2017 – Geographical distribution of inhalation dose over Europe Bossew, P.; Gering, F.; Petermann, E. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 205-206 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2019.05.004	journal	September 2019
Bayesian source reconstruction of an anomalous Selenium-75 release at a nuclear research institute De Meutter, Pieter; Hoffman, Ian Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 218 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106225	journal	July 2020
6 months of radioxenon detection in western Europe with the SPALAX-New generation system - Part1: Metrological capabilities Topin, Sylvain; Gross, Philippe; Achim, Pascal Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 225 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106442	journal	December 2020
Near-range atmospheric dispersion of an anomalous selenium-75 emission Frankemölle, J. P. K. W.; Camps, J.; De Meutter, P. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 255 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.107012	journal	December 2022
Phase II testing of Xenon International on Mount Schauinsland, Germany Brander, Sofia; Baur, Sandra; Krais, Roman Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 255 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.107034	journal	December 2022
Projected network performance for next generation aerosol monitoring systems Eslinger, Paul W.; Miley, Harry S.; Burnett, Jonathan L. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 257 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2022.107088	journal	February 2023
SAUNA III - The next generation noble gas system for verification of nuclear explosions Aldener, Mattias; Axelsson, Anders; Fritioff, Tomas Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 262 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107159	journal	June 2023
Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network Eslinger, Paul W.; Burnett, Jonathan L.; Lowrey, Justin D. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 272 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2023.107349	journal	February 2024
A baseline for source localisation using the inverse modelling tool FREAR De Meutter, Pieter; Hoffman, Ian; Delcloo, Andy W. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 273 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107372	journal	March 2024
Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers Eslinger, Paul W.; Rosenthal, W. Steven; Sarathi, Ramesh S. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Vol. 273 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2024.107384	journal	March 2024
Prior specification in Bayesian statistics: Three cautionary tales Van Dongen, Stefan Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 242, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.02.002	journal	September 2006
Iodine speciation and deposition fluxes from the marine atmosphere Baker, A. R.; Tunnicliffe, C.; Jickells, T. D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D22 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000004	journal	November 2001
Atypical compounds of gases, which have been called ‘noble’ Grochala, Wojciech Chemical Society Reviews, Vol. 36, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1039/b702109g	journal	January 2007
Performance of Some Resistant Rules for Outlier Labeling Hoaglin, David C.; Iglewicz, Boris; Tukey, John W. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, Issue 396 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478363	journal	December 1986
Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications Hastings, W. K. Biometrika, Vol. 57, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/57.1.97	journal	April 1970
LII. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. By the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, F. R. S. communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton, A. M. F. R. S Bayes, Thomas Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Vol. 53, p. 370-418 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstl.1763.0053	journal	January 1763
NOAA’s HYSPLIT Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Modeling System Stein, A. F.; Draxler, R. R.; Rolph, G. D. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00110.1	journal	December 2015
The Use of Global and Mesoscale Meteorological Model Data to Predict the Transport and Dispersion of Tracer Plumes over Washington, D.C. Draxler, Roland R. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 21, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF926.1	journal	June 2006
Bayesian inverse modeling and source location of an unintended ¹³¹I release in Europe in the fall of 2011 Tichý, Ondřej; Šmídl, Václav; Hofman, Radek Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-12677-2017	journal	October 2017
Source-receptor matrix calculation with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model in backward mode Seibert, P.; Frank, A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-4-51-2004	journal	January 2004
Modelling iodide – iodate speciation in atmospheric aerosol: Contributions of inorganic and organic iodine chemistry Pechtl, S.; Schmitz, G.; von Glasow, R. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-1381-2007	journal	February 2007
Real-time measurement of radionuclide concentrations and its impact on inverse modeling of ¹⁰⁶Ru release in the fall of 2017 Tichý, Ondřej; Hýža, Miroslav; Evangeliou, Nikolaos Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-803-2021	journal	February 2021
On the model uncertainties in Bayesian source reconstruction using an ensemble of weather predictions, the emission inverse modelling system FREAR v1.0, and the Lagrangian transport and dispersion model Flexpart v9.0.2 De Meutter, Pieter; Hoffman, Ian; Ungar, Kurt Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1237-2021	journal	March 2021

Similar Records

Source Term Estimation Using Multiple Xenon Isotopes in Atmospheric Samples

Journal Article · 2019 · Journal of Environmental Radioactivity · OSTI ID:1543319

Eslinger, Paul W.; Lowrey, Justin D.; Miley, Harry S.; +2 more

Source Term Estimation in the Presence of Nuisance Signals

Journal Article · 2019 · Journal of Environmental Radioactivity · OSTI ID:1530551

Eslinger, Paul W.; Mendez, Jennifer M.; Schrom, Brian T.

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Journal Article · 2024 · Journal of Environmental Radioactivity · OSTI ID:2282028

Eslinger, Paul W.; Rosenthal, William Steven; Sarathi, Ramesh S.; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Source term estimation using noble gas and aerosol samples

Citation Formats

References (46)

Similar Records

Related Subjects