Crustal permeability generated through microearthquakes is constrained by seismic moment

Yu, Pengliang; Mali, Ankur; Velaga, Thejasvi; Bi, Alex; Yu, Jiayi; Marone, Chris; Shokouhi, Parisa; Elsworth, Derek

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46238-3

Title: Crustal permeability generated through microearthquakes is constrained by seismic moment

Journal Article · 06 March 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46238-3 · OSTI ID:2472350

^[1];

^[2]; Velaga, Thejasvi ^[3]; Bi, Alex ^[3]; Yu, Jiayi ^[3]; Marone, Chris ^[4]; Shokouhi, Parisa ^[3];

^[3]

Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); OSTI
University of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States)
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States)
Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); La Sapienza Università di Roma (Italy)

We link changes in crustal permeability to informative features of microearthquakes (MEQs) using two field hydraulic stimulation experiments where both MEQs and permeability evolution are recorded simultaneously. The Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model effectively predicts permeability evolution and ultimate permeability increase. Our findings confirm the form of key features linking the MEQs to permeability, offering mechanistically consistent interpretations of this association. Transfer learning correctly predicts permeability evolution of one experiment from a model trained on an alternate dataset and locale, which further reinforces the innate interdependency of permeability-to-seismicity. Models representing permeability evolution on reactivated fractures in both shear and tension suggest scaling relationships in which changes in permeability (Δk) are linearly related to the seismic moment (M) of individual MEQs as Δk ∝ M. This scaling relation rationalizes our observation of the permeability-to-seismicity linkage, contributes to its predictive robustness and accentuates its potential in characterizing crustal permeability evolution using MEQs.

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Research Organization:: Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States); University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Research Council (ERC); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Geothermal Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0007080; EE0008763; SC0017585

OSTI ID:: 2472350

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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